Governance inefficiencies, the invisible killer in Kenya

NAIROBI: EXTERNAL disruptions can lead to economic decline at certain points in a nation’s history. Additionally, there are cases where decline is self inflicted—gradual, painful and alarmingly normalised.

Currently, many Kenyan observers argue that Kenya is at risk of falling into the second category.

The claim that Kenya is self-destructing may seem exaggerated or harsh. But, the provocative language hides a deeper political-economic reality: a mix of debt reliance, policy inconsistency, growing social unrest, governance failures, and institutional complacency is gradually weakening one of Africa’s most vibrant economies.

An intense debate has been ignited by a viral presentation circulating on social media platforms like Facebook, which claims that Kenya is harming itself.

The tragic truth is that it is, economically, politically, and socially, based on my understanding of my fellow Kenyans and the pride we have built over the years.

Although the language is emotive and provocative, it reflects the real worries of citizens about governance failures, rising debt, social unrest, inequality, and institutional flaws.

Today, my main aim is to examine the deeper political economic issues underpinning the presentation’s argument, differentiating between rhetoric and structural reality, and to assess whether Kenya’s current course threatens its long-term economic future.

Former Kenyan leaders and high-profile senators are not recounting a tale of sudden catastrophe, as economists and advisors to investors suggest.

Instead, it is a story of erosion, and if it is ignored and Kenyans fail to recognise its wider economic implications, erosion could prove to be disastrous.

Kenya is undeniably one of the most innovative and diverse economies in Africa, as highlighted by the media and publications.

However, beneath this resilience lies increasing stress. According to recent assessments by Reuters, the development momentum is being hindered by high public debt, costly borrowing, and declining private-sector credit.

For instance, the World Bank downgraded Kenya’s growth forecast to about 4.5 per cent due to sluggish investment activity and debt challenges.

Concurrently, it is expected that fiscal deficits will rise to roughly 5.3 per cent of GDP, highlighting ongoing budgetary constraints linked to substantial infrastructure financing.

These figures imply that Kenya is not on the verge of collapse from a political economy standpoint; instead, it is entering a phase where policy errors could gradually weaken macroeconomic stability.

Former Vice-President Gachagua’s presentation at a church on 15 March 2026 was characterised by the claim that Kenya is taxing itself into economic distress. This assertion resonates with recent events for economists.

In response to proposed tax increases aimed at stabilising public finances, youth-led protests occurred across the nation in 2024 and 2025.

These protests grew significantly in intensity as demonstrators attempted to break into parliament buildings and confront security forces.

Although such a demonstration may be dismissed casually, the unrest suggests a deeper political-economic issue: the social contract weakens when citizens see taxation as disconnected from service delivery.

If taxation rises while unemployment, inequality, and living costs stay high, public trust in institutions might decline, which could potentially harm the investment climate and long-term growth.

The viral presentation by former President Gachagua highlighted governance inefficiencies and institutional fragility, asserting that these inefficiencies are self-inflicted economic problems.

Throughout history, Kenya’s economy has been troubled by governance issues, such as regulatory uncertainty, delayed reforms, and perceptions of corruption.

These challenges are responsible for the ongoing poverty, as about 25 per cent of the population remains below the international poverty line, as reported by the World Bank. Institutional fragility also becomes clear during crises.

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For instance, the death of blogger and educator Albert Ojwang while in police custody sparked nationwide protests and outrage, raising questions about the rule of law and accountability.

Investor confidence is being eroded, political risk premiums are increasing, and economic growth is being hampered in Kenya as a result of these and many other incidents.

As the nation gears up for the upcoming general election, it is clear that Kenya’s protests are not just political; they are economic warnings.

This becomes obvious when listening to discussions in churches and public gatherings.

The demonstrations, mainly led by Gen Z citizens, which caused dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries, reflected deep frustration with corruption, police brutality and soaring living costs.

Youth unrest often occurs when labour markets cannot support a growing population from a policy perspective.

If job creation does not keep up, Kenya’s demographic edge—a young and educated workforce—could turn into a liability.

In this context, the dramatic claim that Kenya is self-destructing may reflect worries that demographic pressures could hinder economic reforms. Kenya has made significant investments in infrastructure to support long-term growth.

While these investments could boost productivity, they also lead to higher debt levels. When borrowing costs rise and revenues fall short, the government might turn to increased taxation or domestic borrowing, which can discourage private investment.

As an economist, I believe that excessive domestic borrowing can limit the availability of credit for businesses, thereby hindering industrial growth and innovation.

This example illustrates a political-economy dilemma: development expenditure can boost growth, but if it is executed inefficiently or sequenced poorly, it might threaten financial stability.

Persistent inequality exists alongside Kenya’s stories of economic success, which include agricultural exports and fintech innovation.

In rural areas, poverty remains a major challenge, worsened by environmental degradation and water shortages, which threaten the livelihoods of many Kenyans and reduce agricultural productivity.

In the meantime, the eating habits of the urban middle class are shifting towards processed foods and sedentary lifestyles, which are contributing to the rise in non-communicable diseases.

The idea that economic growth is not inclusive can be reinforced by the fact that such disparities might worsen social divides and intensify political tensions.

Narratives—both domestic and international—also influence Kenya’s economic path.

The pessimism of both investors and citizens can be worsened when viral presentations depict the country as “self-destructive.”

However, political economic analysis requires nuance. Economic systems rarely face an abrupt collapse. They decline gradually due to institutional weakening, policy inconsistency, and diminishing public trust. Conversely, reform momentum can potentially reverse harmful trends.

Governance inefficiency is arguably the most damaging factor undermining Kenya. Investors are deterred by inconsistent policies.

Delays in projects result from regulatory uncertainty. Perceptions of corruption increase risk premiums.

Recent analyses suggest that Kenya is losing its traditional role as the leading economic hub of East Africa due to governance issues and competitiveness challenges.

This decline is subtle but dangerous for economists who have studied these economies for the past twenty years. Economic leadership is not permanent; it must be renewed through institutional strength, innovation, and reform.

It is provocative to say that Kenya is committing suicide. However, provocation can sometimes serve a purpose.

It requires a national dialogue on debt sustainability, governance quality, youth empowerment, and development priorities. Protests, viral videos, and headlines alone will not determine Kenya’s economic future.

The decisions made today will have a major impact. The country can still change direction if leaders and citizens see this moment as a wake-up call rather than an insult.

However, the slow decline of economic strength could become far harder to stop if complacency remains and inefficiencies go unchecked.

In political economy, the most dangerous crises are not sudden ones. They are the gradual ones—the type that nations cause themselves.

The viral speech by former vice-president Gachagua, which claims that Kenya is self-destructing, may be overly dramatic.

However, his statement, alongside those of other honourables and members of parliament about the level of inefficiencies in Kenya, reflects a real concern about the country’s development path.

Kenya is at a pivotal point as an East African citizen who was born, raised, and educated in East African institutions and universities.

Kenya, as it rallies to the 2027 general election, faces the choice between allowing inefficiencies, fiscal pressures, and social tensions to gradually diminish its economic potential and leveraging reform efforts, regional integration, and private-sector strength to attain sustainable growth.

Historical evidence indicates that nations rarely collapse due to a single crisis. They encounter issues when warning signs are ignored.

The Kenyan nation is being undermined by deep-rooted problems and challenges common to any country, and these are being promoted on church platforms and social media by individuals who previously held high-ranking government positions.

For Kenya, the challenge is not merely to dismiss alarmist narratives but to confront the deeper political and economic realities that give them power.