El Niño warning demands caution, not panic

DAR ES SALAAM: WARNINGS about approaching El Niño-influenced rains should prompt Tanzanians to prepare, not panic. The Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) forecasts that the October–December 2026 Vuli season will be strongly influenced by El Niño, with normal to above-normal rainfall expected in several areas. Rain may continue into January 2027, with increased rainfall expected in November. This is a call for sensible action, not a declaration that disaster is inevitable.

El Niño does not mean every district will flood, nor can a seasonal outlook predict exactly when and where every downpour will occur. Tanzanians should follow TMA’s regular, location-specific updates and local authorities’ advice, rather than rumours or alarming social-media messages. Calmness must go hand in hand with readiness.

The greatest concern is for people living in flood-prone settlements, river valleys and low-lying areas. Residents in locations identified as dangerous should follow official instructions and move to safer ground before rising water makes evacuation impossible. Families should agree on evacuation routes, safeguard essential documents and medicines and help children, older people and persons with disabilities reach safety. No house or plot of land is worth a life.

Equally urgent is stopping sand extraction from riverbeds, streams and their banks, especially where it is unauthorised or damages the environment. Removing sand can weaken banks, accelerate erosion and disturb natural water channels, worsening hazards during heavy rainfall. Authorities must enforce environmental rules, while sand harvesters should stop harmful practices and seek lawful alternatives. Communities must not undermine the waterways they depend on.

Preparedness requires collective effort. Households should clear drains without dumping rubbish into waterways; councils should remove blockages, inspect bridges, identify evacuation centres and communicate warnings promptly. People must never walk or drive through fast-flowing floodwater, cross flooded bridges or let children play near swollen rivers and drains. Contaminated floodwater can spread disease, making safe drinking water and sanitation essential.

The rains may benefit agriculture and water supplies, but those benefits depend on planning. Farmers should follow local forecasts and extension advice, protect stored produce and prepare for waterlogging where relevant. Businesses and transport operators should review emergency plans and protect workers and equipment.

TMA’s warning is an opportunity to prevent loss, not a reason for fear. Government institutions, communities and individuals must act early, share verified information and support vulnerable neighbours. Tanzania should neither panic nor become complacent: listen to TMA, respect the environment and move away from danger before disaster strikes consistently.