THE outcome of the 29th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) is concerning in Baku, Azerbaijan, especially considering previous COPs and promises.
This year’s meeting’s primary focus is finance and the world’s wealthiest countries should lead the charge on green finance. However, the grim reality is that expecting meaningful climate policy decisions beyond COP29 might be a pipe dream.
The wealthiest country in the world, America, is about to have a commander-in-chief in office in two months whose body language suggests that he will be stingy with the environment after he takes office in two months.
In other discussions and meetings, I have consistently maintained that financial incentives are quick change agents and should be given more weight as a tactic for sound environmental governance, especially in helping nations transition.
When renewable energy breakthroughs and installations became viable economic models across all regions, the battle against climate change gained momentum. Because renewables impose inherent emission caps on the ecosystem, strong economies like the USA and the EU reduced their carbon footprints.
When a new American government stops providing green incentives to these environmentally conscious companies, all these benefits could be lost.
The warning flags appeared only a week after Donald Trump’s triumph. Concerns that a Trump presidency will shut down US offshore wind projects caused a significant decline in the share price of turbine makers last Wednesday.
Granted, some experts contend that the next president might not, in the long run, reverse the trend towards coal, oil and gas or slow the expansion of alternative energy sources.
However, the world has a limited amount of time, and that worries me. According to the United Nations Environment Programme’s annual emissions gap study, released a few weeks ago, the world might experience a rise of up to 3.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100 if governments do not take more action to reduce emissions that cause global warming. Each nation’s revised emissions-cutting plan, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution, is due in February 2025 and will be influenced by the negotiations in Baku.
COP29 is significant for this reason. In particular, it addressed the 2015 Paris Climate Pact’s New Collective Quantified Goal for climate finance. The pact requires rich countries to give climate funds to developing countries so they can aim at reducing their greenhouse gas emissions and get ready for the effects of climate change.
Today, stakeholders believe that the proposed green climate fund needs to be revised despite the agreement that wealthy countries would contribute 100 billion US dollars annually. They now want carbon funding of up to 500 billion US dollars.
The COP29 agenda includes a Loss and Damage Fund. Developing nations have been requesting loss and damage funds for years to assist them in rescuing and rehabilitating areas and communities affected by catastrophic climate change events. The fund was approved in Dubai last year. COP29 will, therefore, endeavour to operationalise the fund this year.
Nationally Determined Contributions are the other item. Governments are expected to submit their revised plans next February to be evaluated at the COP30 in Brazil November next year.
Article 6 is another crucial point. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which was left over after the rest of the Paris rulebook was finalised, has never been settled because carbon trading has been a contentious topic at all COPs. After being considered at COP26, it was postponed to COP27 without a resolution and subsequently to COP28. It is hoped that we will see a resolution this year.
However, even if we’re crossing our fingers for successful discussions, we still have another obstacle to overcome, which I think will be simple. The psychological issue was demonstrated earlier this week when COP29’s engine was about to be doused with cold water. In his introductory remarks, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan stated that petrol and oil are gifts from God, indicating a government-approved position to continue producing and using fossil fuels.
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This is ironic and extremely regrettable, given that COP 29 is anticipated to build on the successes of COP28 (Dubai), where the world decided to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels. To make matters worse, Elnur Soltanov, a top official in Azerbaijan’s COP29 team, was caught on camera talking to a possible investor about “investment opportunities” in the nation’s state oil and gas business. Over the next ten years, the country intends to increase gas production by as much as a third.
This will only make people less optimistic about progress at the COP. Hope is a currency of utmost importance when countries are trying to enhance their aspirations. Many stakeholders were ecstatic about the chances of a successful climate finance transition beyond 2025 when wealthy nations mobilised 115.9 billion US dollars in 2022, surpassing the 100 billion US dollars climate funding for developing countries.
The world can only hope that international leaders will return to the train of reason now that the apple cart has been overturned. Sufficiently, the UN Secretary-General told the conference that increasing the use of fossil fuels was ‘absurd just after the ‘gift from God’ remark.
Critically following what is happening at COP29, the weakest link might be its greatest asset. Simply put, everyone would benefit from compromises to ensure the meeting never ends without a deal. This is especially true since the conference will establish a new financial goal to help ensure that developing nations more vulnerable to climate change can receive adequate financing to address their challenges.
America should refrain from determining the new course for the Paris climate agreement since we all know what Trump stands for. Rich nations request that the number of contributors to the Green Carbon Fund be increased. Only nations classified as developed under the 1992 UNFCCC now contribute to the official climate fund. For example, this list does not include China, the United Arab Emirates, or Qatar.
However, during the past three decades, many nations’ economies and greenhouse gas emissions have grown. For starters, China is currently the world’s largest emitter and second-largest economy after the United States.
As we reach this crucial point in the battle against climate change, these (new) wealthy countries must decide to have a significant impact. According to some experts, a compromise might be reached whereby certain developing nations are permitted to contribute and receive climate aid, or they could make voluntary contributions.
Following China’s intelligent tactics in dealing with complex global situations, be they political or economic, it might use this opportunity to establish itself as a green behemoth that underdeveloped countries can emulate in combating mate change. Since nature hates a vacuum, Xi’s China will prevail if Trump’s America does not emerge.
