DSE turnover rebounds as share trading gathers pace

DAR ES SALAAM: THE Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) recorded a stronger trading week ending October 23, 2026, with turnover rising by 30.16 per cent to 16.85bn/-, from 12.94bn/- in the preceding week.

The increase in turnover was accompanied by a substantial 74.89 per cent rise in the volume of shares traded, from 5.30 million to 9.26 million shares, indicating stronger trading activity and increased participation during the week.

Despite the improvement in market activity, overall market capitalisation declined marginally by 0.73 per cent to 39.57tri/-, from 39.86tri/-, largely reflecting price movements among selected large-cap counters.

Meanwhile, domestic market capitalisation increased by 0.35 per cent to 27.50tri/-, suggesting relative resilience in the domestic market.

Trading activity remained highly concentrated in a few counters, with CRDB and NMB accounting for 81.32 per cent of total market turnover. CRDB led the market with turnover of 6.81bn/-, representing 40.72 per cent of total activity, closely followed by NMB with 6.79bn/-, equivalent to 40.60 per cent.

VODA was a distant third with 1.68bn/-, or 10.05 per cent of turnover, while NICO and AFRIPRISE contributed 3.02 per cent and 0.88 per cent, respectively.

Combined, the five most actively traded counters accounted for approximately 95 per cent of total weekly turnover, highlighting the continued concentration of liquidity in a limited number of stocks. The market recorded notable gains across several counters during the week.

TCCL emerged as the top gainer, appreciating by 5.00 per cent to 4,200/-, followed closely by TBL, which gained 4.99 per cent to 10,300/-. MBP advanced by 4.43 per cent to 2,120/-, while TCC and AFRIPRISE increased by 3.63 per cent and 3.45 per cent, respectively.

The gains suggest selective buying interest across both established counters and smallercap stocks. However, the overall decline in market capitalisation indicates that the positive performance was insufficient to offset losses in some heavyweight counters. On the downside, the market experienced significant corrections in several counters.

NMG was the largest decliner, falling by 29.51 per cent to 215/-, followed by JATU, which declined by 13.04 per cent to 200/-.

TTP fell by 10.71 per cent to 375/-, while PAL declined by 8.33 per cent to 275/-. The magnitude of these declines, particularly in NMG and JATU, contributed to the marginal contraction in overall market capitalisation despite the stronger trading volumes recorded during the week.

HESLB mulls capital markets option to finance student loans

The Higher Education Students’ Loans Board (HESLB) is exploring the possibility of raising funds through Tanzania’s capital markets, including issuing a bond, as part of efforts to diversify its funding sources and meet growing demand for student loans.

The proposed approach could reduce reliance on government funding and loan repayments while providing an additional channel for financing higher education.

HESLB Executive Director, Dr Bill Kiwia, noted that the board had begun exploring a potential bond issuance, although the process could take two to three years because of legal, regulatory and approval requirements. The initiative comes as demand for student financing continues to grow.

For the 2026/2027 academic year, HESLB has allocated 1.06tri/- to finance at least 300,000 students, compared with 916.7bn/- allocated in the previous academic year.

This represents an increase of approximately 15.6 per cent, reflecting the growing need for higher education financing.

Meanwhile, the board continues to strengthen loan recovery to maintain a sustainable revolving fund. Annual recoveries have increased from approximately 28bn/- to 235bn/-, equivalent to about 70 per cent of its annual repayment target.

Impact

HESLB’s potential bond issuance could introduce a new investment opportunity for investors seeking fixed-income securities while broadening Tanzania’s corporate debt market.

It could also demonstrate how public institutions can use capital markets to mobilise longterm financing for social and economic development.

However, the investment opportunity will depend on the bond’s eventual terms, including its coupon rate, maturity, credit risk and regulatory approvals.

Treasury bill auction No 1209

On October 21, 2026, the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) offered Treasury bills to investors across four maturities: 35 days, 91 days, 182 days and 364 days.

The offerings comprised 49.9bn/- for the 35-day Treasury bill, 69.9bn/- for the 91-day bill, 99.9bn/- for the 182-day bill and 169bn/- for the 364-day bill.

Investor demand was relatively weak for the shorter-dated Treasury bills, with the 182-day and 364-day bills being the only maturities to record oversubscription, at 125.63 per cent and 142.06 per cent, respectively.

In contrast, the 35-day and 91-day Treasury bills recorded subscription rates of 80.16 per cent and 74.40 per cent, indicating that demand for these maturities fell short of the amounts offered.

Regarding allocations, the BoT accepted all tendered amounts for the 35-day and 91- day bills while allotting exactly the amounts offered for the 182- day and 364-day bills, despite oversubscription in these maturities. Yield movements were mixed across the maturity spectrum.

The weighted average yields for the 35-day and 91-day Treasury bills increased, while those for the 182-day and 364- day bills declined marginally.

Notably, the 364-day Treasury bill recorded a decrease in its weighted average yield, easing from 6.2839 per cent in the early-October auction to 6.1342 per cent in the latest auction. This represented a decline of 14.97 basis points.

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The decline in the 364-day bill’s yield was accompanied by an increase in its minimum successful price, which rose from 93.2241 to 94.0710.

This movement is consistent with the inverse relationship between bond prices and yields; whereby higher prices generally correspond to lower yields.

Equity market outlook

The equity market is expected to trade cautiously, with investors maintaining selective positions over the coming weeks as domestic buying seeks to absorb persistent cross-border divestment.

The recent 30.16 per cent rebound in weekly turnover to 16.85bn/- and the 74.89 per cent surge in traded volume to 9.26 million shares reflect stronger local buying interest.

However, market direction remains heavily influenced by offshore liquidity trends. Persistent net foreign outflows, which recorded 3.53bn/-, continue to weigh on prospects for a broad-based market recovery.

As long as foreign portfolios maintain an active exit position in frontier markets, the headline All Share Index (DSEI) is likely to remain range-bound, constrained by continued selling pressure in large-cap stocks.

Within individual sectors, capital appears to be rotating away from banking heavyweights towards cash-generative industrial counters.

Although CRDB and NMB retained an overwhelming 81.32 per cent share of total turnover, the Banking, Finance and Investment (BI) Index contracted by 0.16 per cent, indicating cautious investor sentiment following extended price gains.

In contrast, the Industrial and Allied (IA) Index gained 3.21 per cent, supported by strong price advances in TCCL, TBL and TCC. This rotation could accelerate ahead of upcoming thirdquarter corporate earnings as market participants adjust their portfolios towards manufacturing and consumer stocks offering more resilient margins and attractive dividend yields.

Conversely, cross-listed and speculative counters, such as Nation Media Group and JATU, are likely to remain volatile because their relatively illiquid domestic trading books leave them vulnerable to sharp price corrections even on limited trading volumes.

Fixed income and money market outlook Primary money-market dynamics point towards continued investor preference for longerduration securities and potential yield compression across the government yield curve.

The BoT’s recent Treasury bill auction No 1209 highlighted relatively weak demand from investors for shorter maturities, with the 35-day and 91-day bills failing to achieve full subscription.

In contrast, strong demand for the 182-day and 364-day bills, which recorded subscription rates of 125.63 per cent and 142.06 per cent, respectively, coincided with a 14.97-basispoint decline in the 364-day bill’s weighted average yield to 6.1342 per cent.

Because the central bank allotted amounts equivalent to the offers for the oversubscribed maturities, competition for the available securities remained strong.

Declining money-market yields could reduce the relative appeal of short-term investments, encouraging institutional investors to consider longerduration securities to maintain portfolio returns.

However, the extent of this shift will depend on liquidity conditions, investor mandates and expectations about future interest rates.

This potential movement of funds from short-term instruments could support secondarymarket activity in government bonds and sustain demand for longer-tenor securities. Weekly bond turnover rose to 155.18bn/- across 162 deals, primarily supported by the 25- year sovereign segment, which accounted for more than 46 per cent of total turnover.

Trading was led by the newly listed Bond No. 722 and Bond No 666. With substantial demand remaining following recent oversubscribed primary bond issuances, institutional investors are increasingly turning to the secondary market to meet their duration targets.

As a result, benchmark 20-year and 25-year Treasury bonds are projected to trade at elevated clean-price premiums in coming sessions, with longterm secondary-market yields expected to remain within the 10.50 per cent to 11.20 per cent range.