Negotiating with tomorrow: Tanzania today

DAR ES SALAAM: FROM a human perspective , tomorrow is often uncertain, sometimes frightening, rarely predictable and never guaranteed to be kind.

As long as it remains unseen, anxiety about it is almost inevitable.

Yet, experience and planning teach us that unless deliberate action is taken today, the future we fear may well become reality.

This brings us to an important reflection: What tomorrow is and what it can be made to be.

The difference lies in what we choose to do now. Gradually, Tanzanians are coming to terms with a once-overlooked reality, food crop production is no longer merely about subsistence.

It has proven, beyond reasonable doubt, to be a powerful driver of both household income and national economic growth, often outperforming traditional cash crops in its impact and reach.

Looking at trends over the past few decades, the country has largely maintained food security. This is an achievement worth recognising and preserving.

However, a pressing question remains: Can we afford to maintain the status quo producing enough to feed ourselves and exporting modest surpluses, or should we aim higher?

Should Tanzania aspire to stand, metaphorically, at the peak of Mount Kilimanjaro, recognise the growing global demand for food and embrace the responsibility and opportunity of becoming a major food supplier to the world?

And more importantly: How close are we to that reality? Let us consider maize the most widely cultivated crop in Tanzania, both in terms of volume, number of farmers involved and land under cultivation.

Recent global trade data indicates that the maize market continues to be a multi-billion-dollar industry, with major importers such as China, Japan, Iran and South Korea collectively accounting for tens of millions of metric tonnes annually.

Notably, many of these countries rely more on industrial and manufacturing sectors than agriculture, highlighting a critical opportunity for agrarian economies like Tanzania.

Despite this global demand, the country’s contribution remains relatively small. While national maize production has grown in recent years, exports still represent only a fraction of total output.

Even when informal cross-border trade is considered, the country is yet to establish itself as a significant player in the global maize market.

This raises an important concern: Should this situation persist, or is it time for a strategic shift? A deeper look reveals that productivity, not production is the main constraint. Average maize yields in the country remain low by international and even regional standards.

Although there has been slight improvement in recent years, yield per hectare still lags behind countries like Zambia and South Africa, where productivity is significantly higher.

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This comparison highlights a crucial point: Tanzania’s production growth has largely been driven by expanding cultivated land rather than improving efficiency.

While increasing acreage has its benefits, it is neither sustainable nor sufficient for long-term competitiveness.

Data trends over recent years show that expanding farmland has contributed substantially to increased output.

However, this approach has natural limits, land availability, environmental sustainability and rising production costs all pose challenges.

Which brings us to a central question: Is technology the missing link? At first glance, this seems plausible.

The world’s leading maize exporters dominated by industrialised nations benefit from advanced agricultural technologies, including mechanisation, improved seed varieties and precision farming.

Even within Africa, South Africa stands out as a top exporter, largely due to its adoption of high-yield technologies, including genetically engineered seeds.

However, such technologies remain restricted in Tanzania and many other African countries, presenting both a policy dilemma and a developmental challenge.

This article does not aim to provide definitive answers. Rather, it seeks to spark meaningful discussion.

If it succeeds in encouraging critical thinking, informed debate and bold decision-making about the future of Tanzania’s agricultural sector, then it has achieved its purpose.

Because ultimately, negotiating with tomorrow begins with the choices we make today