MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT: Fuel crisis fears mount as experts call for calm, strategy

DAR ES SALAAM: ANALYSTS have called for a nationwide public awareness campaign on responsible consumption to help citizens navigate the socioeconomic effects of the ongoing Middle East crisis, which has disrupted global oil supply chains and led to flight cancellations.

According to the experts, the government should develop an energy consumption advisory blueprint and assemble a team of specialists to guide the public on prudent fuel usage.

Such measures, they argue, would prevent panic buying and other uninformed precautionary actions as tensions escalate.

They also stressed the importance of strengthening foreign currency reserves, to protect the Tanzanian shilling from depreciation, while cutting non-essential fuel consumption to curb possible shortages that could trigger long-term inflationary pressures.

Speaking to the Daily News, an economist at Marian University, Mr Gilbert Mwabeza, underscored the need for an energy consumption advisory from the Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority (EWURA) to guide responsible fuel use during the crisis.

“This is the right time for the government to assess existing petroleum stocks and establish clear guidelines for responsible fuel consumption, to minimise the anticipated inflationary impact,” Mr Mwabeza said.

He added that the government should also prepare citizens psychologically to withstand economic uncertainties, noting that the duration of the crisis remains unclear.

In the absence of clear consumption guidance, he warned, some consumers may resort to panic buying, while manufacturers, transporters, wholesalers and retailers could raise prices of essential goods such as food and logistics services.

“Inflation is sometimes driven by expectations. Panic buying and speculative price increases can worsen the situation unnecessarily,” he noted.

Such irrational consumption patterns, he cautioned, could weaken purchasing power and exacerbate inflationary risks. A well-structured advisory, however, would ease pressure on consumers and promote efficient utilisation of available fuel stocks.

Global oil and gas prices have surged following escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran, disrupting energy exports from the Middle East and affecting global navigation routes and production in several Gulf countries.

On fuel prioritisation, Mr Mwabeza suggested that special consideration be given to logistics trucks transporting essential goods and to manufacturers to ensure continuity of supply chains.

He commended President Samia Suluhu Hassan for recently alerting citizens about the projected rise in global fuel prices due to the conflict, describing her remarks as a proactive step in preparing the public.

For his part, economist and investment banker Dr Hildebrand Shayo said growing geopolitical instability has transformed energy resilience from a policy aspiration into a strategic economic necessity.

“The challenge for policymakers and business leaders is to transform Tanzania’s energy landscape by reducing dependence on imported petroleum while ensuring access to affordable and reliable energy to support national development and competitiveness,” Dr Shayo said.

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He noted that while external shocks such as Middle East tensions are beyond Tanzania’s control, the country can reshape its energy future through investments such as strategic fuel storage facilities.

Continued reliance on imported petroleum products, he warned, exposes the country to inflationary risks, price volatility and balanceof-payments pressures.

He advocated for greater use of natural gas, expansion of renewable energy sources, improved energy efficiency and supportive policies to enhance resilience and sustainable growth.

“The path to energy resilience is complex but essential to safeguard Tanzanian families, businesses and the broader economy against disruptions in the global energy market,” he said.

Global business analyst, Dr Sylvester Jotta of Saint Augustine University of Tanzania (SAUT) also advised the government to establish a national petroleum reserve for use during emergencies such as the current crisis.

He further urged authorities to safeguard foreign currency reserves to stabilise the Tanzanian shilling and ensure continued importation of essential goods.

“To prevent inflation, we must boost exports of value-added products to generate sufficient foreign exchange. A strong reserve base will cushion the shilling during global crises,” Dr Jotta said.

He encouraged citizens to increase agricultural productivity in anticipation of possible global food price hikes resulting from fuel supply disruptions.

“Every citizen has a role to play in ensuring global geopolitical conflicts do not derail Tanzania’s drive toward achieving the National Development Vision 2050,” he added.

On protecting the tourism sector amid airline suspensions in parts of the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, Dr Jotta urged the government to intensify promotion of domestic tourism.