TMA forecasts prolonged cold season, warns of possible El Niño

DAR ES SALAAM: THE Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) has forecast a prolonged cold season between June and August 2026, characterised by low temperatures, strong winds in some areas and occasional offseason rainfall.

The authority has also raised concerns over a possible El Niño weather pattern later in the year.

Speaking to journalists yesterday in Dar es Salaam, TMA Director General, Ladislaus Chang’a, said weather experts are closely monitoring global climate systems following signs of warming ocean temperatures linked to possible El Niño conditions expected between October and December.

“We are continuing to closely monitor the weather systems and we will issue further information as the situation develops,” Dr Chang’a said.

According to TMA, the June to August season, commonly known as the cold season, will largely be dominated by southeasterly winds across much of the country.

However, the authority said the winds are expected to be slightly weaker than normal, with occasional strong gusts likely to affect coastal and inland areas, especially during June and July.

TMA also warned that despite the dry conditions usually associated with the cold season, several regions are expected to receive unusual off-season rainfall.

The affected areas include parts of the Lake Zone, particularly Mara Region, as well as coastal regions such as Dar es Salaam, Tanga, Morogoro, Lindi, Mtwara and Coast, including Mafia Island, Unguja and Pemba. Rainfall is also expected in some northeastern highland areas.

Meteorologists linked the forecast to rising sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, considered a key indicator of a developing El Niño phenomenon.

“Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are projected to remain above average, signaling possible El Niño conditions,” Dr Chang’a explained.

He added that warmerthan-normal temperatures in the western Indian Ocean along the East African coast are expected to increase moisture flow into the country, reducing nighttime coldness while triggering isolated rainfall events outside the normal rainy season.

At the same time, warmer waters southwest of the Indian Ocean near Madagascar are expected to weaken the high-pressure systems that normally push cold southern winds toward Tanzania, resulting in milder cold conditions in some areas.

TMA has advised wananchi to take precautionary measures during the cold season to avoid weather-related illnesses.

Livestock keepers were urged to protect animals against pests and diseases likely to emerge due to changing weather conditions, while farmers were advised to safeguard crops against destructive insects and unpredictable rainfall patterns.

The authority also encouraged stakeholders in the construction sector to take advantage of the relatively dry months to continue projects before heavier rains potentially linked to El Niño begin later in the year.

“Preparedness remains critical as climate patterns continue to shift,” Dr Chang’a stressed.