Mining powers past Vision 2025 goal, revenue tops 1tri/-

TANZANIA: THE mining sector has achieved a milestone once considered highly ambitious, contributing 10.1 per cent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024 and surpassing the Vision 2025 target a year ahead of schedule.

The achievement caps nearly two decades of sweeping reforms that have transformed mining from a marginal contributor accounting for just 3.5 per cent of GDP in 2008 into one of the country’s leading economic sectors.

The sector’s contribution to GDP has been matched by a dramatic expansion in government revenues, which have increased more than fivefold over the past decade. According to Minister for Minerals Anthony Mavunde, collections surpassed the trillionshilling mark for the first time in 2024/25, reaching 1.07tri/-.

By March this year, revenues had already reached 1.034tri/-, equivalent to 114.94 per cent of the annual target, with a full quarter of the financial year still remaining.

Tanzania set a national target under Vision 2025 for mining to contribute at least 10 per cent of GDP by 2025 and the sector achieved that target a year early in 2024.

When Vision 2025 was formulated, the mining sector contributed only a small share of national output and was largely characterised by raw mineral exports. The target of raising its GDP contribution to 10 per cent was therefore viewed as an ambitious benchmark intended to transform mining into a major pillar of economic growth.

Beyond growth in output and revenues, the sector is undergoing a structural transformation. Under the Third Five-Year Development Plan (FYDP III), Tanzania is increasingly moving away from the traditional model of exporting raw minerals towards value addition, local processing and strategic mineral development.

New investments in mineral processing facilities, critical minerals and local content initiatives are positioning mining not only as a source of export earnings, but also as a catalyst for industrialisation and broader economic development.

The achievement marks the early fulfilment of one of Vision 2025’s key objectives and provides a strong foundation for the next phase of development under Tanzania Development Vision 2050, which seeks to deepen industrial linkages, expand value chains and strengthen the country’s role in global strategic mineral supply networks.

“The mining sector now reflects the government’s deliberate efforts to enhance productivity and the regulatory environment,” Deputy Minister for Minerals Dr Steven Kiruswa said. “It is no longer just about extraction; it is about national development.”

Gold remains the dominant force behind the sector’s expansion, accounting for about 90 per cent of mineral exports. Supported by record international bullion prices, mineral export earnings reached approximately 4.7 billion US dollars in 2025, strengthening Tanzania’s foreign exchange position and recently surpassing tourism as the country’s leading source of foreign currency earnings.

The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) has also moved to leverage the boom by purchasing 17.03 tonnes of gold as part of efforts to diversify national reserves and strengthen longterm monetary stability. The move has helped internalise a larger share of the country’s mineral wealth while providing additional support to the shilling.

Even as gold continues to drive growth, the government is pursuing a deliberate strategy to diversify the sector through critical minerals required for the global energy transition. Major projects involving nickel, graphite, rare earth elements and niobium are expected to position Tanzania as an increasingly important supplier to international clean energy and advanced manufacturing value chains.

Among the flagship investments is the Kabanga Nickel Project, which is advancing toward production using low-carbon processing technology. At the same time, the Epanko graphite project and the Ngualla rare earth project are expected to strengthen Tanzania’s position in global supply chains seeking alternative sources of strategic minerals.

The diversification agenda received a major boost in March this year when Tanzania signed an agreement for the Panda Hill niobium project in Songwe Region. The project, which carries an initial investment of 442 million US dollars, is expected to account for approximately four per cent of global niobium output.

Government projections indicate that the project could generate more than 2tri/- through royalties, taxes, dividends from the state’s 16 per cent stake and broader economic linkages, while creating over 7,900 direct and indirect jobs.

Speaking after the signing of the Panda Hill niobium project agreement in March, Mr Mavunde described the investment as a strategic milestone aligned with President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s directive that Tanzania’s minerals should increasingly be processed and value-added domestically. He noted that the project would not only position Tanzania among a limited number of global niobium producers but also integrate the country into high-value industrial supply chains serving advanced manufacturing sectors worldwide.

The government’s valueaddition strategy is also beginning to reshape the sector. Seven mineral processing plants are now operational, while new refining facilities in Mwanza, Geita and Dodoma are helping retain more value within the country. The objective is to ensure that Tanzania increasingly exports processed mineral products rather than raw materials.

Mr Mavunde has repeatedly linked the sector’s recent gains to the government’s broader industrialisation agenda, arguing that Tanzania must increasingly move beyond exporting raw minerals towards domestic processing and beneficiation. Under this strategy, seven mineral processing plants are now operational, while additional refining facilities are being developed to ensure a greater share of mineral value remains within the country.

Beyond production and exports, policymakers point to growing domestic participation as evidence of deeper sectoral transformation. According to the minister, Tanzanians now account for 97 per cent of the mining workforce, while local procurement has risen to 88 per cent, reflecting efforts to ensure that more of the industry’s benefits accrue to local communities and businesses.

Efforts are underway to expand domestic participation further through dedicated mining areas for young investors and specialised financing arrangements.

Local participation has similarly expanded. Tanzanians now account for 97 per cent of employment in the mining sector, while local procurement has reached 88 per cent. To broaden domestic ownership, the Mining Commission recently allocated 65 mining areas specifically for young Tanzanian investors, supported by financing arrangements with CRDB Bank.

As Vision 2025 gives way to Vision 2050, policymakers are increasingly focused on building a mining sector that is not only larger, but more sophisticated. Priority areas include connecting major mining projects to the national grid, expanding domestic mineral processing capacity and securing Tanzania’s place in global electronics, battery and green energy supply chains.

The latest figures suggest the sector has already exceeded one of the country’s long-standing development targets. The challenge now is to sustain the momentum and ensure that Tanzania’s mineral wealth continues to drive industrialisation, employment creation and long-term economic transformation.

Despite the strong performance, several challenges continue to constrain the sector’s full potential. Industry stakeholders cite inadequate infrastructure in some mining areas, high energy costs, limited access to affordable financing for local miners and persistent reliance on gold, which leaves the sector vulnerable to fluctuations in global commodity prices.

The dominance of artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM), while providing livelihoods for thousands of Tanzanians, continues to present regulatory, environmental and safety challenges. Limited access to modern technology, geological data and capital has restricted productivity among many small-scale operators.

Minister Mavunde has acknowledged that limited access to modern technology and reliable geological data remains a major challenge, particularly for small-scale miners.

He has argued that many local operators still lack advanced exploration equipment, drilling services and accurate geological information needed to improve productivity and attract financing.

To address the gap, the government has launched the Mining for a Brighter Tomorrow (MBT) programme, procured modern drilling rigs, expanded geological surveys and is constructing new mineral laboratories in Dodoma, Geita and Chunya to provide affordable testing and analytical services.

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Experts also point to the need for faster development of mineral processing facilities and supporting industries to accelerate value addition and reduce dependence on raw mineral exports. Although progress has been made, the country still exports a significant portion of its minerals in semi-processed or raw form.

Another challenge is ensuring that local communities derive greater benefits from mining activities. Concerns over land compensation, environmental management, skills development and community participation remain important issues that require sustained attention as new projects come on stream.

The emerging critical minerals industry also faces growing international competition as countries race to secure supplies of minerals required for electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies and advanced manufacturing. To remain competitive, Tanzania will need to maintain a stable policy environment, improve logistics and transport infrastructure and invest in specialised skills required by the modern mining industry.

While the sector has surpassed the Vision 2025 target ahead of schedule, sustaining growth will require addressing these structural challenges while deepening value addition, strengthening local participation and ensuring that mineral wealth translates into broad-based economic development. The success of Vision 2050 will depend not only on expanding production but also on building a competitive, diversified and inclusive mining industry capable of driving Tanzania’s long-term industrial transformation.