High-level disputes among Kenyan national political leaders risk plunging

NAIROBI: THE latest economic assessment from the World Bank ranks Kenya as the tenth- poorest country in the world.

Much as Kenyans might not accept it, this is bad news for Kenya, a country preparing to hold the next presidential and parliamentary elections on Tuesday, 10th August 2027, with political disputes already heating up and social media reporting what shouldn’t be made public, turning into a veritable circus.

Disputes among political parties and Kenya’s top political leaders, particularly during this period of general election preparations, threaten to further devastate the country’s economy, already among the 30 poorest in the world, according to a World Bank report.

The numerous incidents that keep popping up on Kenyan social media—such as a leader known as Rigathi Gachagua, who was formerly the vice-president of a country once renowned for its robust economy, running for his life from a church area— raise questions about the well being of Kenya’s former national leaders and provide insight into the current state of Kenyan politics, which, in my opinion, will have huge implications for the Kenyan economy, an economy that, according to a World Bank report, has placed Kenya amongst the 30 poorest nations in the world.

The current political climate in Kenya, particularly the feud between President William Ruto and his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, is negatively affecting economic activity, which could prevent Kenya from recovering from its status as the 10th-poorest nation in the world.

While many people, including Kenyans, may deny this out of pride, it is clear that ignoring the reality will have significant implications for their economy.

Due to time constraints, I will focus on the core economic issues I believe are directly affecting the Kenyan economy and significantly contributing to the youth unemployment rate, stemming from disagreements and miscommunication among Kenya’s senior leaders, as seen on Kenyan social media.

Kenyans may be surprised to hear this, but if the bitter feud between former and current high ranking officials continues in the open, as recently witnessed by a former vice president running for his life from what Kenyan social media reports as a threat to be shot, investor confidence will plummet.

In any nation, foreign and domestic investors alike are understandably wary and may be put off from making investments when political instability becomes a governance issue.

Investors seeking political stability as a safeguard for their assets and to expand investments may reduce their foreign direct investment (FDI), with significant implications for job creation.

ALSO READ: World Bank Report: Kenya ranks 10th for extreme poverty

From a serious, strategic investor’s point of view, they can’t help but worry about the potential collapse of Kenya’s stock market (NSE) and financial markets in the event of a political crisis, something many people don’t realise is possible.

Stock prices will fall, and commercial investors and banks will lose faith as a result.

Economic and development policies, in my opinion, would be postponed due to the current situation and the fact that certain Kenyan social media outlets depicted the former vice president fleeing a religious service through bushes in a hurry, all while keeping an eye on the economy.

Important policies, such as the budget, plans to in- crease employment, and tax reforms, are going to be put on hold because political infighting forces leaders to resort to force to achieve political objectives rather than economic priorities that serve Kenyans and, especially, help them to come out of what the WB has painted before the world.

The present political argument circus, as reported by Kenyan media, and its implications may not be understood by many, but the reality is that the increase in these incidents, as previously reported by certain Kenyan media outlets, will pose a risk to the interests and investments of the Joint Fund.

This could result in high- er interest rates on domestic and foreign debt, as well as reduced funding for the productive sectors, as public expenditure may be increased to pursue political popularity rather than long term welfare policies designed to serve ordinary Kenyans.

The economic implications of Kenya’s preparations for the 2027 general elections are significant, with a notable risk of a decline in the flow of foreign funds, particularly from markets that were previously used to send money home to support Kenyans and their families.

The following is the truth that Kenyans will not appreciate: Remittances and foreign trade flows can be influenced by political crises, particularly those characterised by arguments and gossip on Kenyan social media.

International trade favours countries with political stability because of their low risk.

The analysis of Kenyan- based social media postings indicates that Kenyans will be negatively affected if they fail to recognise the broader economic context.

This will stifle employment and private-sec- tor investment for Kenyans who are currently struggling due to the WB report’s assessment outcome.

In my opinion, the business and private-sector association could create new employment and lend to SMEs if the political environment, as depicted on Kenyan social media, remains unstable.

This could lead to the dissemination of information to the public that was not intended for publication, potentially increasing unemployment, particularly among young people.

The influence on monetary policy will not be over- looked.

The Central Bank of Kenya may be under pressure to contain inflation during political unrest if the phenomena we are currently witnessing on Kenyan social media persist.

This could result in high- er interest rates and diminished business investment.

Strategically, examining the Kenyan social media report could affect the risk of national and regional conflicts.

National or regional conflicts, whether perceived as resource conflicts, party differences, or political ones, can severely disrupt economic activity in specific areas of Kenya.

Particularly, the Kenyan economy’s foundation will be significantly affected.

Kenya’s tourism sector is a significant source of revenue. Tourist destinations may become vulnerable to security threats amid an unstable political climate, leading to a decrease in international visitors and a decline in Kenya’s main source of foreign exchange earnings.

This could prompt them to seek out alternative destinations where calm is more prevalent.

In my opinion, the most detrimental consequence will be a reduction in infrastructure investment and public projects.

This is because political instability can impede the financing and execution of major infrastructure projects, as external donors and contractors may be wary of political risk.

Source: Own assessment and projection based on what Kenyan social media posts This chart illustrates the primary economic risks associated with the political leaders’ crisis in Kenya, as depicted by Kenyan social media.

One example is the implication of the former vice-president’s escape through the church’s back door and subsequent disappearance into the bush.

The impact doesn’t end at the church door but extends to the wider Kenyan economy. This chart also indicates the severity level of each critical economic sector.

According to the graphic assessment, the most substantial risks in the context of ongoing political tensions between the country’s top leaders are a decline in FDI, a collapse in investor confidence, rising interest rates, and capital flight.

The most significant risk is the decline in investor confidence (9/10); without confidence, all investments will be suspended.

FDI reduction and capital flight (8/10): Foreign and domestic investors will relocate their funds to more stable countries.

The government and private sec- tors are subject to elevated borrowing costs due to rising interest rates (8/10). Currency volatility could lead to a loss of value (7/10): Import costs increase.

SME credit contraction and public projects could be delayed (7/10), and development projects stalled due to a lack of capital for small enterprises.

In summary, my recommendation to Kenyans is that high-level disputes among national political leaders have both direct and indirect effects on critical sectors of the economy and on political relations.

These risks will disrupt long-term development plans, reduce GDP growth, and diminish the labour market in Kenya, a complex and highly integrated economy.

In addition to the conviction that Kenya’s constitution is among the best in Africa, the final advice is to stop playing childish games whose implications for the Kenyan economy are significant, which could make it difficult to climb out of the 10th position among the world’s poorer nations, as the WB report clearly assesses.