DSE turnover surge masks concentrated trading

DAR ES SALAAM: THE Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) recorded a strong improvement in trading activity during the week ended September 4 this year, with turnover rising significantly compared with the previous week.

Total market turnover increased by 64.93 per cent to 86.37bn/-, from 52.37bn/- in the week ended August 28 this year.

The increase points to heightened investor participation and stronger liquidity, particularly in a few highly traded counters.

Trading volume also expanded by 41.13 per cent to 35.24 million shares, from 24.45 million shares previously. Despite the substantial increase in trading activity, the market’s overall capitalisation rose by a more modest 1.78 per cent to 39.43tri/-, compared with 38.74tri/- in the preceding week.

This suggests that the rise in turnover was driven more by increased transactions in selected counters than by a broad-based revaluation of the market.

Domestic market capitalisation, however, declined slightly by 0.98 per cent to 26.72tri/-, indicating that the gains in the overall market were supported partly by movements in other segments of the market.

Meanwhile, Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) market capitalisation increased by 2.63 per cent to 225.87bn/-, reflecting continued growth in the ETF segment.

Trading was highly concentrated among a small number of counters. CRDB remained the dominant contributor to market turnover, accounting for 49.55 per cent, equivalent to approximately 42.80bn/-.

NMB followed with 33.71bn/- , representing 39.02 per cent of total turnover. Together, the two banking counters contributed approximately 88.6 per cent of total market turnover, underscoring the continued dominance of banking stocks in overall DSE liquidity.

The week’s strongest price performance came from NMG, which gained 23.64 per cent to 340/-, making it the top-performing counter. KCB followed with an 11.56 per cent increase to 2,220/-, while EABL rose by 5.79 per cent to 6,030/-.

Other notable gainers included NICO and DCB, which appreciated by 5.53 per cent and 5.38 per cent, respectively.

The gains across these counters indicate selective buying interest, with investors continuing to identify opportunities beyond the most heavily traded banking stocks.

PAL was the week’s biggest decliner, falling 12.86 per cent to 305/-. MBP declined by 6.94 per cent to 2,010/, while NMB fell by 5.16 per cent to 2,020/, despite being the second-largest contributor to market turnover.

TCCL and TTP also declined by 3.23 per cent and 2.06 per cent, respectively. BoT bond auction draws strong demand On Wednesday, September 2, 2026, the central bank was in the market offering 146.32bn/- to investors through the reopening of the 10-year Treasury bond carrying an annual coupon rate of 11.25 per cent.

The auction was subscribed to 247.18 per cent, receiving bids totalling 361.68bn/-, while accepted bids amounted to 146.32bn/-.

The auction marked the reopening of the 10-year Treasury Bond No. 711, which attracted strong investor demand, recording an oversubscription rate of 247.18 per cent.

Total bids more than doubled the amount offered by the Bank of Tanzania, highlighting renewed investor appetite for the longer-term government security.

Despite the strong demand, the Bank of Tanzania allotted exactly the amount it intended to raise. The bond’s minimum successful price increased significantly to 102.7521, from 95.6988 in the previous auction, representing a substantial improvement in pricing.

This increase was partly supported by accrued interest of 1.2945, which contributed to the bond trading at a premium.

Meanwhile, the weighted average yield declined by 18.23 basis points, falling from 10.8747 per cent in the previous original auction to 10.6924 per cent in the current auction.

Secondary market bond turnover expanded substantially during the week ended September 4, this year, recording a total traded value of 124.19bn/- executed across 161 trades.

Compared with the preceding trading week’s turnover of 84.22bn/- across 155 trades, weekly turnover surged by 47.46 per cent, while transaction deal count edged up by 3.87 per cent.

Market activity was overwhelmingly anchored in long- and medium-term sovereign Treasury papers, with the 10-year, 20-year and 25-year tenors collectively capturing 99.32 per cent (123.34bn/-) of aggregate trading value, alongside selective corporate bond exchanges.

Equities Watch for a pause or partial reversal in turnover after last week’s spike. The 64.93 per cent jump in turnover was driven almost entirely by two counters—CRDB and NMB, which accounted for about 88.6 per cent of trading, rather than broad participation.

That kind of concentration rarely repeats two weeks running, so a moderation in headline turnover next week would not signal weakening sentiment, but rather a return to normal distribution across counters.

The more telling signal to track is NMB: it carried the second-highest turnover share while its price fell 5.16 per cent, which points to distribution sellers meeting buyers at declining prices rather than accumulation.

If that pattern persists into next week, it would suggest institutional or foreign profit-taking in NMB specifically rather than banking-sector weakness broadly, since CRDB’s turnover came with no comparable price decline.

Net foreign flows remained negative and essentially unchanged, declining by 0.37 per cent week-on-week, so foreign investors are still net sellers at roughly the same pace.

This is worth monitoring for either an acceleration, which could pressure large-cap counters such as CRDB and NMB further, or a stabilisation that could support the recent gains in mid-tier names such as NMG, KCB and EABL.

Corporate actions will likely dominate positioning over the next two weeks. TOL Gases’ rights issue creates a defined event calendar that should shape trading in TOL shares specifically.

The cum-rights deadline falls on September 10 and the record date on September 14, so increased trading interest in TOL can be expected through this week as investors position to qualify, followed by a mechanical price adjustment once the register closes.

The rights price of 710/- relative to TOL’s current trading price will be the key reference point for whether the issue is priced at a discount attractive enough to draw uptake when it formally opens on September 17.

Separately, NICOL’s proposed 90/- per share dividend could see the counter attract dividend-seeking interest in the coming sessions, though this is typically a smaller, less liquid counter, so the impact on overall market turnover should remain marginal.

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Fixed income The reopened 10-year bond auction (711) suggests demand for government paper is strengthening, not just holding steady. Subscription climbed to 247.18 per cent from 246.34 per cent at the last reopening, while the weighted average yield compressed a further 18 basis points to 10.69 per cent.

That’s a fourth consecutive reopening of this line and the trend across it falling yields and rising minimum prices points towards continued investor appetite for long-dated government securities into the next auction cycle, likely reflecting expectations that rates have further room to ease.

Secondary market activity backs this up: turnover in bonds rose 47.46 per cent week-onweek, with trading heavily concentrated in the 10-, 20- and 25- year tenors, which accounted for 99.32 per cent of value.

The next BoT auction calendar and secondary trading are therefore likely to remain focused on the long end rather than shortdated paper.

Net takeaway: The equity market’s near-term direction hinges more on whether NMB’s selling pressure persists or fades and on how the TOL rights issue and subsequent price adjustment play out, than on last week’s turnover surge repeating.

The bond market’s trajectory looks more settled, continued strong demand and gradually compressing yields at the long end are likely to carry into the next few weeks, barring a shift in liquidity conditions.