Debt, politics, public anxiety: What’s really hurting Kenyan Gen-Z

NAIROBI: IN recent months, social media platforms, especially Facebook and church altars have become battlegrounds for competing narratives about the real factors harming Kenya’s economy.

This is especially relevant for observers of Kenya’s development, particularly as the country nears the upcoming 2027 general election.

The public debt accumulated during the administrations of former President Uhuru Kenyatta and current President William Ruto remains central to much of the debate, raising concerns, especially among Gen Z, who are more focused on their future.

Critically examining the events, rallies, debates, and counter-debates from various sides, the issue is no longer just abstract macroeconomics for ordinary citizens facing rising living costs, unemployment, and fewer business opportunities; it has become an everyday political concern.

Yet beneath the intense online exchanges, a complex reality shaped by global economic pressures, development priorities, and fiscal policies has been kept from most Kenyans.

It may be necessary to reflect on the legacy of borrowing for infrastructure to achieve consensus, as more Kenyans voice their grievances and concerns to the world.

Kenya carried out an ambitious infrastructure development programme during Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidency to establish the country as a regional hub for manufacturing and logistics.

Significant investments were made in transport networks, energy projects, and urban development initiatives.

Listening to the most learned brothers in Kenya, one notes that the initiatives established the groundwork for sustainable economic expansion by attracting foreign investment, enhancing connectivity, and reducing logistics expenses.

Critics, however, argue that the economy’s capacity to generate returns at a rate and scale sufficient to service the debt was exceeded by the pace and volume of borrowing.

This resulted in a substantial rise in Kenya’s public debt, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability even before Kenyatta’s presidency concluded.

However, the upcoming debt pressures faced by the current administration are complex and require a detailed analysis to provide clarity.

This is due to William Ruto inheriting an economy struggling with high debtservice obligations, currency fluctuations, and post-pandemic recovery issues when he took office.

His administration has solely focused on stabilising public finances through revenue mobilisation strategies, rationalising expenditures, and maintaining high levels of domestic borrowing.

However, these efforts have also caused public discontent, especially when new taxes or austerity measures affect households and small businesses.

Some Kenyans argue that current policies simply shift the burden of previous borrowing onto ordinary citizens without offering immediate economic relief, depending on one’s perspective on social media.

As analysts, the increasing proportion of government revenue allocated to debt servicing is one of the most frequently debated topics on the internet.

Funding for critical public services, such as healthcare, education, and social protection, may be restricted as interest payments consume a larger share of the national budget.

This results in the perception that Kenyan citizens are paying a higher tax rate but are obtaining fewer public benefits.

These fiscal tradeoffs, especially as Kenyans rally ahead of the election, have the potential to exacerbate political polarisation and erode trust in government institutions.

Moreover, the government’s ability to fund new growth initiatives is constrained by a lack of fiscal space, which could lead to a slowdown in economic growth and employment opportunities.

The outcome is the crowding-out effect on the private sector in Kenya, as those of you who understand economics will agree, is real.

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Additionally, business communities have voiced concern about significant domestic borrowing. The availability of credit for entrepreneurs may decrease, and interest rates may rise when governments compete with private firms for bank financing.

Accessing affordable financing is a challenge for small and medium enterprises, which are frequently referred to as the backbone of Kenya’s economy.

This constrains their capacity to expand operations or recruit employees. This challenge is frequently underscored in social media discussions, which link rising unemployment and business closures to broader fiscal dynamics.

Although the issue is often portrayed as a simple blame game between past and present administrations in online debates, the economic reality is more complex.

Debt sustainability is contingent on a variety of factors, including economic growth rates, export performance, exchange rate stability, and global financial conditions, as well as the volume of borrowing.

For example, financing costs have increased for numerous emerging economies, including Kenya, due to rising global interest rates and external shocks such as commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions.

To prevent the distortion of policy discourse, it is imperative to understand this broader context and avoid oversimplified conclusions.

Political divisions have also been exacerbated by the debt debate. Supporters of various political factions employ fiscal data selectively to advance their respective narratives, occasionally exacerbating misinformation.

Consensus-building on essential reforms, such as tax policy adjustments, expenditure prioritisation, and structural economic transformation strategies, can be impeded by such polarisation.

In numerous democratic systems, the predominance of short-term political incentives poses a challenge to the effective management of debt, which necessitates long-term planning that transcends electoral cycles.

Investor sentiment can be influenced by persistent public apprehension regarding debt.

The currency may be further pressured and borrowing costs may increase if markets perceive increased political risk or fiscal uncertainty, which could result in a decrease in capital inflows.

This dynamic has the potential to establish a selfreinforcing cycle in which economic challenges exacerbate political tensions, which in turn exacerbate economic vulnerabilities.

Therefore, it is imperative to preserve the confidence of both domestic and international investors by ensuring that fiscal strategies are communicated in a transparent manner. Kenya’s debt trajectory has implications that extend beyond its borders.

The fiscal stability of one of East Africa’s main economies has an impact on regional trade flows, financial integration, and investment patterns.

Simultaneously, the responsibility of servicing longterm debt obligations prompts intergenerational concerns. If growth does not accelerate sufficiently, younger citizens are concerned about inheriting high tax liabilities and restricted employment opportunities.

Economic grievances intersect with broader debates about governance, inequality, and social justice in social media discourse, which is increasingly reflective of these anxieties. To resolve the issues currently dominating Kenyan public discourse and to put Kenya on the right footing moving forward, as analysts, do believe several policy priorities are especially important.

One is enhancing transparency and accountability. Publishing comprehensive reports on debt use and project outcomes will help to restore public confidence.

When tangible development results are seen, Kenyan citizens will be much more likely to support fiscal reforms.

Secondly, prioritising productive investment future borrowing should focus on sectors with strong economic multipliers, including export-focused manufacturing, digital infrastructure, and renewable energy systems.

Three is the enhancement of domestic revenue systems. By enhancing tax administration and expanding the tax base, rather than merely increasing tax revenue through government bond issuance, it is possible to mitigate the burden on vulnerable households and reduce dependence on borrowing.

The fourth objective is to promote the growth of the private sector. Currently, the private sector in Kenya is at a crossroads, as its future is uncertain given the statements of those who once held higher office.

The economy’s capacity to generate revenue and create jobs can be increased by improving the business environment and making access to affordable credit easier.

I believe these, and other recommendations, are suitable for Kenyans and can only succeed under a united Kenya, with efforts to build political consensus on fiscal reform.

To ensure the continuity of economic policy implementation, long-term debt sustainability necessitates cooperation across political divides that is currently missing in Kenya.

The passionate debates currently occurring on social media platforms worldwide reflect genuine public concern about Kenya’s economic future, and social media is becoming the preferred means of communication across various fields, including politics, finance, economics, and conflict instigation.

For Kenya, when prudently managed and associated with productive investments, debt can serve as an effective development tool.

Nevertheless, it is at risk of becoming a source of social anxiety and political tension in the absence of sustained economic development and transparent governance.

Debt, politics, and public anxiety in Kenya must navigate this complex landscape through effective communication, institutional reforms, and inclusive dialogue, as well as sound economic policies aligned with the Kenyan constitution and marked by transparency.

This will ensure that fiscal decisions made today contribute to the prosperity of future generations of Kenyans.