Equities climb despite outflows

DAR ES SALAAM: TOTAL market turnover increased significantly to 42.69bn/-, representing a 42.1 per cent rise compared to 30.04bn/- recorded in the previous week. Trading volumes also rose substantially, with 15.77 million shares exchanged, marking a 35.05 per cent increase from the 11.68 million shares traded in the prior week.

Despite the strong trading activity, the market recorded net foreign outflows of 22.95bn/-, up from 11.43bn/- in outflows recorded in the preceding week.

Total market capitalisation rose 4.15 per cent to 34.52tri/-, while domestic market capitalisation increased 3.65 per cent to 23.77tri/-. On a year-to-date basis, the market continues to record exceptional growth. Total market capitalisation has expanded 43.86 per cent from 23.99tri/- recorded at the end of 2025, while domestic market capitalisation has increased 52.56 per cent from 15.58tri/-.

This strong performance highlights sustained investor confidence and continued participation in domestic equities.

Trading activity remained heavily concentrated in a few counters. CRDB Bank Plc dominated the market, accounting for 81.9 per cent of total weekly turnover after recording 34.97bn/- in traded value.

Several counters recorded strong price appreciation during the week, reflecting increased investor demand across select stocks. TTP led the market’s gainers after its share price surged by 52.17 per cent to close at 700/-, marking the largest percentage increase among listed equities during the week.

PAL also posted a strong performance, rising 50.89 per cent to close at 845/-. NMG registered a 20 per cent increase to close at 330/-, while DCB Commercial Bank Plc advanced 17.78 per cent to 795/-, reflecting improved demand for the banking stock. Meanwhile, CRDB Bank Plc, which dominated trading activity, also recorded a notable price gain of 14.51 per cent, closing the week at 2,920/-.

On the losing side, MUCOBA experienced the largest decline during the week, with its share price falling 17.09 per cent to close at 970/-. MCB also recorded a significant drop of 13.89 per cent, ending the week at 1,860/-.

Key benchmark indices

All Share Index (DSEI) closed at 3,973.44 points up by 4.15 per cent. Tanzania Share Index (TSI) closed at 8,786.49 points up by 3.65 per cent.

Sector Indices

Industrial & Allied Index (IA) closed at 4,924.58 points down by 0.34 per cent.

Bank, Finance & Investment Index closed at 19,604.60 points, up by 5.18 per cent.

Commercial Services Index closed at 2,420.6 points, up by 4.23 per cent.

Highlights: Debt Market

Treasury bill auction no: 1194

On March 12, 2026, central bank was in the market offering treasury bills to investors. The offerings included 29.9bn/- for the 35-day maturity Treasury bill, TZS 39.9 billion for the 91-day T-bill, TZS 59.9 billion for the 182- day T-bill, and TZS 85.2 billion for the 364-day T-bill.

Investor demand in this auction was relatively strong across all maturities, with all Treasury bills recording oversubscription. The 35-day bill attracted solid interest, posting a subscription rate of 421.40 per cent, the 91-day bill 263.20 per cent, the 182- day bill 151.09 per cent, and the 364-day bill also achieved a subscription rate of 105.70 per cent.

Despite the strong demand across all maturities, the Bank of Tanzania allotted exactly the amounts offered for the 35-day and 91-day bills. For the 182-day bill, the Bank accepted more than the amount initially offered, while for the 364-day bill it accepted less than the amount offered.

The 364-day Treasury bill recorded an increase in its weighted average yield, rising from 6.1683 per cent in the late February auction to 6.3961 per cent in the current auction an increase of 22.78 basis points. This rise in yield was supported by a decline in the minimum successful price, which fell to 92.9979 from 94.1400 in the previous auction. The inflation rate for February 2026 stood at 3.3 per cent.

Secondary Market Activity

In the secondary fixed income market, activities slightly dropped. The market recorded a total turnover of 172.67bn/-, a marginal decrease of roughly 0.56 per cent from last week’s 173.65bn/-.

However, the intensity of trading cooled significantly, with only 155 deals executed a sharp 35.15 per cent drop from the 239 deals recorded previously. Investor appetite remained focused on the long end of the yield curve. The 20- year and 15-year bonds were the preferred instruments for liquidity: The 20yr-15.49 per cent bond was the most frequently traded paper, accounting for 50 individual deals.

High-value turnover was concentrated in the 15yr-13.5 per cent paper (29.57bn/-) and the 20yr-12.10 per cent paper (25.69bn/-).

Market Outlook:

Looking ahead, the Tanzanian market appears to be at a compelling crossroads where record-breaking domestic growth meets a shifting global landscape. Based on the momentum from the week of March 13, 2026, the narrative for the coming weeks will likely be defined by three key themes: banking resilience, a recalibration of debt yields, and a strengthening macroeconomic foundation.

The Equity Pulse: A Domestic Stronghold

The equities market is currently riding a wave of “exceptional growth,” with the domestic market capitalisation having already surged by over 52.56 per cent since the start of the year. We expect the banking sector to remain the primary protagonist in this story.

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Counters like CRDB and DCB are seeing sustained demand, and this trend is likely to continue as local investors double down on financial stocks. However, a subtle tension is building: net foreign outflows doubled this week to 22.95bn/-. In the weeks ahead, the market’s direction may depend on whether local institutional appetite can continue to absorb this foreign selling without cooling the current price rallies.

The Debt Market: Realigning for the Future

In the fixed income space, the narrative is one of precision and adjustment. While the secondary market saw a slight dip in deal intensity, the underlying hunger for long-term yields—specifically in the 15- year and 20-year brackets—remains the “anchor” of investor strategy.

The most recent Treasury bill auction signalled a slight shift, with the 364-day T-bill yield climbing to 6.3961 per cent. Moving forward, we expect to see investors closely watching these short-term yield increases to see if they signal a broader upward shift in the yield curve. For now, the “gold standard” remains the high-coupon long-term bonds, which offer a sanctuary of stability and predictable returns.