AI skills redraw the global labour map

DAR ES SALAAM: ARTIFICIAL intelligence (AI) is no longer a future workplace disruptor—it is already reshaping the structure of global labour markets.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff discussion note ‘Bridging Skill Gaps for the Future: New Jobs Creation in the AI Age’, around 40 per cent of global employment is potentially exposed to AI, though the degree of exposure varies sharply across countries and income groups.

“New AI-related skills have become a significant component of emerging skills in recent years,” IMF says in the discussion note issued yesterday.

Although in advanced economies this share rises to 60 per cent, in emerging markets it remains at 40 per cent, and in low-income countries it stands at 28 per cent.

In the United States—the country with the longest posting series—AI skills appeared in fewer than 1.0 per cent of postings before 2015 but in almost 5.0 per cent by 2025.

“The demand and supply of new skills—especially in IT and AI—are reshaping labor markets, impacting wages and hiring.

“About one in ten job vacancies in advanced economies demands at least one new skill, often appearing first in the US,” the note says adding

“The incidence is about half in emerging economies”.

The IMF discussion note says countries also differ widely in their ability to supply new skills.

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“The supply of new skills draws heavily on workers with tertiary education, particularly in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) and IT fields. Yet IT skills are found across all fields of study,” the note indicates based on a Skill Readiness Index.

The Index is developed by combining the share of recent graduates able to supply new IT and non-IT skills, indicators of retraining frequency and workforce literacy and numeracy scores.

The discussion note says these skills boost average wages and employment but deepen polarisation, mostly benefitting high- and—through higher consumption of services—lows killed workers, and potentially contributing to the shrinking of the middle class.

The new skills appear first in the labor demand of advanced economies—particularly the US—and then spread to other countries.

Demand is concentrated in professional, technical, and managerial occupations.

IT skills account for more than half of new skills, with a growing share linked to artificial intelligence (AI), reflecting the general-purpose character of these technologies.

Sector specific skills, such as in health care, are also gaining ground.

The analysis distinguishes between all new skills and AIrelated new skills, which show important differences.

A cross-country skill diffusion analysis, according to the staff discussion note—where arrows indicate flows from early adopters to later adopters—shows Germany, the United Kingdom, and the US as the primary originators of new skills among the countries analysed, with many arrows pointing toward Brazil and South Africa, which primarily act as recipients.

“Despite the dominant role of advanced economies in originating new skills, the network analysis also shows a meaningful amount of skill emergence from Brazil and South Africa, underscoring that diffusion is not a one-way process,” the note says.

About half of the new skills identified in the authors’ analysis diffused across countries between 2021 and 2024.

Relative to the US, the main originator, other advanced economies such as Denmark and the United Kingdom demand new skills within two to four months, while Germany shows a wider range. By contrast, Brazil and South Africa experience average lags of about eight to nine months to demand new skills.

“Despite these differences, it is worth noting that for skills that diffuse, the speed is generally fast: it occurs within a year,” the IMF discussion note, prepared by Florence Jaumotte, Jaden Kim, David Koll, Elmer Z. Li, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Alina Song, and Marina M. Tavares, shows.

In Tanzania, the World Bank and the government developed an integrated approach to teacher training, mentorship, and supportive learning environments that enable girls and women to access STEM education under the Secondary Education Quality Improvement Project (SEQUIP).

Thus, the SEQUIP project helped construct 830 new schools and over 9,000 classrooms, with multi-purpose science laboratories.

Among these are 26 new girls’ secondary schools that focus on mathematics and science.

Over 11 million science and mathematics textbooks have been printed and distributed, with a quarter of schools achieving a 1:1 student-textbook ratio.

Through SEQUIP over 95 percent of all science and math teachers have received inservice teacher training and development—20 per cent of secondary schools have received digital technologies and digital skills training; and 59 per cent of secondary schools received training to implement the safe school programme.

“The reforms in the education system have emphasized STEM subjects, so that students can graduate with market-relevant skills,” Prof Adolf Mkenda, the Minister of Education, Science and Technology, says.