Businesses must prepare to keep operating during heavy rain

DAR ES SALAAM: THE rain does not negotiate. It does not check production schedules, delivery deadlines or payroll obligations. When the skies open over East Africa, they can unleash enough force to halt supply chains, submerge warehouses, sever power lines and render roads impassable.

For businesses across Tanzania and the wider region, the question is no longer whether extreme rainfall will disrupt operations, but how prepared they are to remain operational when it does. The urgency of this question has grown in recent years.

According to the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA), the years 2023, 2024 and 2025 were the warmest on record, with the coming years also projected to rank among the warmest. With every additional degree of warming, extreme weather events, particularly heavy rainfall, strong winds, heatwaves and tropical storms, are projected to increase in frequency and intensity.

For the business community, this is not an abstract environmental concern. It is a direct threat to business continuity, profitability and, in some cases, survival. At a recent engagement with members of the Confederation of Tanzania Industries (CTI), TMA Director General, Dr Ladislaus Chang’a, provided a sobering assessment of the weather outlook, warning that El Niño conditions were developing and could be strong.

The figures illustrate the potential scale of the challenge. According to Dr Chang’a, Tanzania normally receives approximately 300 millimetres of rainfall during October, November and December. During El Niño years, however, rainfall can increase significantly.

In Zanzibar, where the average is approximately 488 millimetres, rainfall during such periods can reach 1,000 to more than 1,200 millimetres. Even Dodoma, traditionally one of the country’s drier regions, with an average of around 169 millimetres, reportedly recorded more than 4,500 millimetres during the 1995 El Niño event.

“During El Niño we have elevated rainfall performance in most parts of East Africa, not only in Tanzania,” Dr Chang’a said. He explained that the Indian Ocean Dipole, a temperature gradient between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean, also plays an important role in influencing rainfall patterns across the region.

Together, these climate systems point to potentially heightened weather activity towards the end of the year and into early 2027, he warned. For industry, the implications are significant. Heavy rainfall can disrupt electricity supplies, port operations, transport networks and daily production.

For manufacturers, each of these represents a potential point of failure. A flooded access road can prevent employees from reaching a factory. Disruptions at ports can delay imports of raw materials, while power outages can bring production lines to a standstill.

Collectively, such interruptions can undermine competitiveness and threaten livelihoods. To understand why preparation matters, it is important to examine how heavy rainfall affects businesses. The most immediate threats include flooding of business premises, damage to stock and equipment, power outages and disruptions to transport networks. However, the consequences extend beyond physical damage.

“Even a few days of closure can significantly affect cash flow because they often operate with limited reserves,” explains trade expert and business consultant Nebart Mwapwele. “The greatest risk is not only physical damage but business interruption. A company may survive damaged property, but prolonged loss of income can threaten its viability,” he adds.

For Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), the stakes are particularly high. Many operate in flood-prone urban areas where drainage infrastructure is inadequate. Flooding can prevent employees from reaching workplaces, delay deliveries, interrupt supply chains and limit customer access.

Large industries face different but equally significant challenges. Although a manufacturing plant may have sufficient financial resources to absorb short-term disruptions, its complex supply chains may extend across regions and continents.

A delayed shipment of essential components, for instance, can trigger missed production targets, contractual penalties and damaged customer relationships.

Using weather information to prepare

Recognising these risks, TMA has stepped up its engagement with the business community. Since issuing its first information about the potential development of the weather system on April 28, the authority has engaged stakeholders across various sectors, including development partners, the Tanzania Employers’ Association and industry groups.

“We have been enhancing our engagement with different entities. We started with different sectors depending on the sensitivity of their infrastructure,” Dr Chang’a said. TMA provides a range of weather information products designed to support business planning.

These include seasonal climate outlooks, monthly forecasts, five-day forecasts and daily weather updates. Together, these products can help businesses build a clearer understanding of expected weather conditions and make informed operational decisions.

“For location-specific warnings, it starts with seasonal climate information. Then we have monthly forecasts, five-day forecasts and daily weather forecasts. It is a package that must be taken together to ensure that you get a very good picture,” Dr Chang’a said.

The authority has also identified specific regional rainfall patterns. The Lake Victoria Basin, particularly the Geita region, was expected to begin experiencing increased rainfall during the fourth week of September and the first week of October.

The northeastern highlands, including Arusha and Manyara, were projected to receive above-normal to normal rainfall from early September. Meanwhile, the coastal region, including Mafia Island and northern Morogoro, was expected to experience above-normal to normal rainfall during the first and second weeks of October.

Practical measures to protect businesses

The good news is that preparation is possible and does not necessarily require substantial financial resources. What it demands is foresight, planning and a willingness to act before the rains arrive. Dr Chang’a outlined several practical measures businesses should adopt, beginning with ensuring that drainage infrastructure allows water to flow freely.

“If there is a need to clean drainage systems, let’s do that. Sometimes heavy rainfall may constitute flooding and sometimes flooding may be attributable to poor drainage systems,” he said. He also urged businesses and individuals to avoid unnecessary risks during periods of heavy rainfall.

“If you are driving, please take time to stop somewhere and do not take risks by attempting to cross fast-moving water,” Dr Chang’a advised. He further cautioned motorists against parking in potentially unsafe locations. “Also, when we are experiencing severe rainfall, we have to be very careful about where we park vehicles. Avoid parking along the edge of roads because sometimes heavy rainfall makes the ground weak,” he said.

Speaking to the Daily News, Mwapwele recommended that businesses conduct flood-risk assessments of their premises and surrounding areas. He also advised them to elevate critical machinery, inventory and important documents above potential flood levels.

Other measures include digitising records and securely backing up data, preferably through cloudbased systems, as well as inspecting roofs, gutters, drainage systems and electrical installations. He further recommended that businesses develop simple business continuity plans outlining responsibilities, emergency contacts and recovery procedures.

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Identifying alternative suppliers and transport routes, maintaining emergency funds to cover shortterm operational disruptions and training employees on emergency procedures and evacuation plans are equally important.

Insurance as part of business resilience Mwapwele also emphasised that insurance should be considered an important component of business risk management, although it should not be treated as the only solution.

“Good preparedness combines risk reduction measures, business continuity planning and insurance coverage,” he explained.

He said insurance could help businesses recover losses associated with damaged buildings, equipment, inventory and business interruption. However, insurance is most effective when combined with preventive measures, as insurers may require evidence of risk mitigation when assessing applications and determining coverage terms.

For SMEs, even basic property and flood insurance could make the difference between reopening after a disaster and closing permanently. “The cost of insurance is often lower than the financial consequences of a major flood event,” Mwapwele added.

Despite these benefits, many businesses, particularly smaller enterprises, remain reactive rather than proactive. Disaster preparedness is often perceived as an additional expense instead of an investment in business continuity.

“As a result, many firms only strengthen their systems after experiencing a flood, extended power outage or supply chain disruption,” he said.

He noted that this pattern was not unique to Tanzania, pointing out that the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) has consistently highlighted the vulnerability of SMEs, which are generally less prepared than larger companies because of financial and technical constraints.

“UNDRR notes that SMEs are often hit harder by disasters and recover more slowly, with some never reopening,” he said.

Nevertheless, awareness is improving as climate-related events become more frequent and visible. Increasingly, businesses are recognising resilience as a competitive advantage rather than merely a compliance requirement.

For small businesses that cannot afford expensive backup systems or comprehensive insurance policies, Mwapwele recommended starting with affordable measures that offer significant protection.

These include storing stock on raised shelves rather than directly on the floor, using free or low-cost cloud storage to back up business records, maintaining a small emergency cash reserve and keeping digital copies of licences, contracts and customer records.

He also encouraged businesses to build relationships with alternative suppliers and transport providers, join local business associations that can provide information and support during emergencies, and purchase basic or partial insurance coverage where comprehensive policies are unaffordable.

Heavy rainfall, he said, should no longer be regarded as a seasonal inconvenience but as a business risk requiring deliberate planning.

“The most resilient businesses are not necessarily the largest ones. They are the ones that prepare in advance, protect critical assets and have a clear plan for continuing operations when disruptions occur,” he said.

Industry associations taking the lead The Confederation of Tanzania Industries has emerged as an important convener of discussions on business preparedness and climate resilience. CTI Director General Leodegar Tenga has urged members to make checking TMA weather forecasts and updates part of their daily routines.

“Weather information is a critical tool for preparedness and resilience. Industries are encouraged to stay informed, monitor weather developments and use official forecasts to make timely decisions. Use this information to plan operations, protect assets, manage logistics and prepare for potential weather-related disruptions,” he said.

Tenga also emphasised the importance of maintaining drainage systems, not only along roads but also within industrial facilities and factory premises.

“We also need to ensure that our drainage systems, particularly in our industries and along roads, are taken care of,” he said.

TMA’s engagement with industry associations reflects a broader recognition that weather information must become an integral part of sectoral planning and economic activities.

The government has established the Tanzania Meteorological Authority Act No 2 of 2019, alongside an implementation framework for the National Framework for Climate Services, aimed at strengthening the integration of weather information into socioeconomic planning.

Looking ahead, Dr Chang’a has proposed developing customised weather services tailored to industrial activities. “Some few years back we had discussions about providing customised weather services for industrial activities,” he recalled. “We could not conclude those discussions. I think it will be very appropriate to continue those conversations so that we can provide customised services depending on your location.”

Such services could improve operational efficiency, strengthen business planning, save lives and protect property against extreme weather events whose intensity and frequency are projected to increase with global warming.

However, Dr Chang’a noted that sustainability would be essential to the success of such initiatives. “It requires you to contribute to ensuring that the information is produced sustainably to inform your services,” he said.

Building a culture of preparedness Ultimately, the challenge facing businesses is not merely technical or financial. It is also cultural. Building resilience requires a shift in mindset: From viewing heavy rainfall as a seasonal inconvenience to recognising it as a strategic business risk that demands advance planning.

The rain will come. The question is whether businesses will be ready. The tools are available, from seasonal climate outlooks and five-day forecasts to daily weather updates and practical guidance on disaster preparedness.

The expertise is also available, from TMA’s meteorological knowledge to the experience of business consultants and industry leaders. What remains is the willingness to act. Businesses across Tanzania should not wait for floodwaters to rise before addressing drainage problems.

They should not wait for electricity to fail before considering backup systems, or for supply chains to break before identifying alternative suppliers and transport routes. The businesses best positioned to withstand extreme weather will be those that treat weather information as a strategic asset, invest in preparedness as a competitive advantage and make resilience a core part of their operations rather than an afterthought.

When the skies open, the businesses that thrive will be those that planned for the storm long before the first drop fell. They will be the ones that understood that resilience is not simply about resisting the rain, but about learning to operate safely and efficiently despite it.

That is the future of business in a changing climate. And it begins with one decisive step: Preparing today for the rains of tomorrow.