Zanzibar cannot afford to ignore repeated warnings as El Niño rains

ZANZIBAR: FOR weeks, the message has been repeated from government offices, weather experts, religious gatherings and public meetings: Zanzibar should prepare for the coming Vuli rains and the possible impacts of El Niño.

President Samia Suluhu Hassan, Zanzibar President Dr Hussein Ali Mwinyi, senior government officials, weather experts and religious leaders have all, in different forums, urged the public to take the warnings seriously.

The message is no longer simply a forecast for farmers or a technical matter for meteorologists.

It is increasingly being presented as a public safety issue, one that could affect homes, roads, drainage systems, agriculture, water supplies, health, transport and livelihoods. And as the rains approach, the most important question for residents is perhaps simple: Are people listening?

The Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) has forecast that the October–December 2026 Vuli season will be significantly influenced by a strong El Niño event. It expects rainfall ranging from average to above average in several parts of the country, particularly areas that experience the Vuli season.

The authority says the rains are expected to begin in some areas from late September into early October and could continue beyond the normal end of the Vuli season into January 2027. November is expected to experience an increase in rainfall.

For Zanzibar, where heavy rainfall can quickly expose weaknesses in drainage, settlements and infrastructure, such warnings cannot afford to become another piece of news that people hear and forget.

But what exactly are Vuli rains and El Niño?

Vuli refers to the short-rains season, normally occurring between October and December in areas of Tanzania, including Zanzibar.

Unlike the longer Masika rains, Vuli rainfall can vary considerably in timing, intensity and distribution.

El Niño, meanwhile, is a climate pattern associated with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Through changes in atmospheric circulation, it can influence rainfall and temperature patterns far from the Pacific, including East Africa.

That does not mean that every day during an El Niño season will bring heavy rain. Rather, it increases the likelihood of particular weather patterns and can contribute to periods of unusually heavy rainfall in affected regions.

El Niño is a major threat because the abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures drastically alters global atmospheric circulation, triggering extreme weather events worldwide including destructive floods- torrential downpours, dangerous mudslides and severe coastal flooding, and severe droughts.

For the 2026 Vuli season, TMA has specifically warned that the rains are expected to be strongly influenced by El Niño conditions.

It has also warned of possible flooding, excessive soil moisture, rising water levels in rivers and reservoirs, impacts on infrastructure and an increased risk of disease outbreaks associated with contaminated water.

This is why officials have repeatedly insisted that residents should not wait until the rain starts before taking action. President Dr Hussein Ali Mwinyi has urged Zanzibar residents to take early precautions and follow official weather information issued by TMA.

Speaking recently after Friday prayers at Masjid Swafaa in Gongoni on September 11, he called on citizens to avoid risky areas, including low-lying locations, valleys and waterways and to move from dangerous areas where necessary.

He also directed municipalities in Unguja and Pemba to ensure drainage channels and waterways are cleared to reduce the risk of flooding.

The President has also called on religious leaders to help educate communities about preparedness while encouraging prayers for the rains to bring blessings rather than disaster.

His message has been reinforced by Second Vice-President Hemed Suleiman Abdulla, who has urged residents to follow expert advice and warned that official alerts should not be ignored.

Mr Abdulla has particularly highlighted the responsibility of residents to protect themselves and their communities. He has advised people living in lowlying and flood-prone areas, as well as near natural waterways, to consider relocating to safer areas before heavy rains arrive.

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The message is important because disaster preparedness is not something that begins when water has already entered a house.

Clearing blocked drains, moving valuable property from flood-prone areas, checking roofs and electrical connections, identifying safer routes and knowing where to obtain assistance are all measures that can be taken before the first major downpour.

Why preparation matters

TMA has warned that excessive rainfall could affect agriculture and infrastructure, while increased water levels in rivers and reservoirs could put pressure on water and energy infrastructure.

Flooding may also contribute to outbreaks of waterborne diseases, while excessive moisture can increase crop diseases. Transport, construction and tourism may also face disruption from flooding, erosion and damage to roads and bridges. For ordinary families, however, the concern is more immediate.

A flooded road can prevent a child from reaching school. A blocked drainage channel can turn a familiar street into a dangerous stream. Rising water can damage household possessions, contaminate drinking water or force families to leave their homes.

These are precisely the risks that early warnings are designed to reduce. TMA has repeatedly emphasised that weather information should be incorporated into planning across economic and social sectors, rather than being treated simply as information to be consumed after a weather event has occurred.

Perhaps the most important message from the current preparations is that disaster readiness cannot be left to government alone.

Government institutions have responsibilities to strengthen response systems, maintain infrastructure, issue timely warnings and assist affected communities.

But residents also have a role. People need to pay attention to official forecasts, discuss risks within their families and communities, and act when authorities advise them to leave dangerous locations.

The same applies to business owners, schools, farmers, fishermen, transport operators, construction companies and tourism establishments.

TMA has urged different sectors to use weather information when planning their activities and taking preventive measures. Religious leaders also have an important role because they reach communities at a grassroots level.

In Zanzibar, where mosques and other religious institutions are deeply connected to community life, their involvement can help transform technical weather warnings into practical messages that people understand and act upon.

he growing number of warnings should therefore not be interpreted as an attempt to create fear. They are an opportunity to prepare.

The rains have not yet caused the disaster. That is precisely why there is still time to reduce the risk.

The message from weather experts and Zanzibar authorities is clear: Monitor the forecasts, listen to official advice, avoid dangerous areas and prepare early.