Inflation rises to 4.0pc amid global economic pressures

DAR ES SALAAM: THE country’s inflation rate rose to 4.0 per cent in April 2026, up from 3.2 per cent recorded in March, but remains within the government’s target range, indicating continued price stability despite ongoing global geopolitical tensions.

According to a report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the increase reflects a faster pace of price changes for commodities in the year ending April 2026 compared to the year ending March 2026.

The report further shows that between March and April 2026, the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) increased from 123.04 to 124.61.

The rise in the overall index was mainly driven by increases in prices of selected food and non-food items.

Among non-food items, major contributors included diesel prices, which rose by 29.3 per cent, petrol by 29.6 per cent, bus fares by 3.9 per cent, taxi fares by 7.8 per cent, and bodaboda fares by 14.6 per cent.

Food items that contributed to the increase included wheat grain prices, which rose by 1.2 per cent, sorghum grains by 1.8 per cent, wheat flour by 1.2 per cent, bread and bakery products by 1.5 per cent, pasta products by 1.9 per cent, poultry by 0.9 per cent, beef by 0.3 per cent, and fruits by 6.7 per cent.

Regionally, neighbouring countries including Kenya experienced an increase of its inflation rate from 4.4 per cent in March to 5.6 per cent in April while in Uganda, the inflation rate rose to 3.0 in April per cent from 2.8 per cent recorded in March.

Commenting on the inflation trend, seasoned economist from Marian University, Mr Gilbert Mwabeza, said Tanzania’s inflation rate remains stable and moderate compared to many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

“The inflation rate we are witnessing is moderate and common in emerging economies. Moderate inflation generally ranges between 2 per cent and 4 per cent, which indicates that the economy is growing. Economically, we do not need a zero per cent inflation rate,” Mr Mwabeza said.

He added that the current inflation rate reflects moderate economic conditions, although consumers may experience a slight decline in purchasing power due to inflationary pressures.

Mr Mwabeza said the inflation level is also important in attracting investors as it signals economic stability.

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However, he noted that consumers are likely to experience a slight increase in prices of goods and services due to rising operational costs linked to global fuel supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions.

“The country’s inflation rate reflects ongoing global economic disruptions and aligns with projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF),” he said.

He further noted that the inflation trend could contribute to exchange rate fluctuations and increased transport costs.

To prevent unjustified price hikes, Mr Mwabeza urged the government to intervene, warning that some traders could exploit global energy shocks to increase prices at the expense of consumers.

He projected that inflation could rise slightly to about 4.2 per cent in the short term before easing to below 4 per cent in the long run if a permanent ceasefire is achieved in the Middle East.

He urged the government, through the Bank of Tanzania (BoT), to maintain tight monetary policies and implement fiscal measures aimed at controlling money circulation and preventing arbitrary price increases.

Mr Mwabeza also cautioned against imported inflation arising from the importation of goods, including petroleum products, from countries experiencing high inflation.