January curse broken, market surges

DAR ES SALAAM: Breaking the January curse: How Tanzania’s stock market surged into 2026 FOR decades, January has carried a familiar pattern across many stock exchanges globally and particularly across African markets, including the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE).

Social obligations such as school fees, rent and household expenses have traditionally pushed investors to liquidate holdings, often resulting in softer prices and subdued market sentiment. However, January 2026 decisively rewrote this narrative, not with caution, but with confidence.

Instead of retreating, the market surged. Rather than engaging in pressure-induced sell-offs, investors chose to reinforce their holdings. What unfolded was not merely a strong start to the year, but a powerful signal of a maturing and increasingly resilient capital market.

Contrary to widespread expectations, share prices across the DSE appreciated broadly, reflecting a shift in investor behaviour from short-term liquidity needs toward long-term wealth creation.

Out of 29 listed counters active at the opening of the first business day on January 2, 2026, an impressive 18 closed the month with price appreciation. Only four counters recorded declines, all modest, while seven remained unchanged. This balance alone signals a healthier, more resilient market structure than in previous years.

The standout performers told an even more compelling story. MBP led the rally with a remarkable 156.95 per cent appreciation, followed by MCB at 63.04 per cent, NICO at 59.04 per cent, AFRIPRISE at 58.59 per cent, MUCOBA at 53.66 per cent, DCB at 45.83 per cent, CRDB at 33.99 per cent and VODACOM appreciating by 33.59 per cent.

Such widespread gains across sectors banking, insurance, investment vehicles and telecommunications point not to speculation, but to growing investor confidence in corporate fundamentals and economic prospects. On the downside, price movements were notably contained.

TOL recorded the largest decline at 12.62 per cent, while VERTEX ETF slipped by only 2.47 per cent, TPCC by 0.16 per cent and DSE by 0.42 per cent.

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Importantly, these declines were neither systemic nor disruptive. Throughout the month, some counters fluctuated above and below closing prices, a normal feature of active markets, but the overall trend remained decisively positive. Market-wide indicators further confirmed January 2026 as a turning point.

Total market capitalisation expanded significantly from 23.995tri/- at the end of December 2025 to 28.318tri/- by the end of January 2026, a gain of over 4.3tri/- in just one month.

Compared to January 2025, when market capitalisation stood at 18.529tri/-, the market recorded a robust year-on-year growth of 52.83 per cent. Liquidity also surged dramatically. Total market turnover reached 188.57bn/- in January 2026, up from just 28.09bn/- in January 2025, representing a staggering 571.31 per cent year-on-year increase.

Even against December 2025’s turnover of 55.07bn/-, January’s performance reflected a sharp acceleration in trading activity, underscoring renewed investor participation and confidence. Perhaps the most telling indicator of maturity came from investor onboarding. Between 1st and 30th January 2026, a total of 30,859 new Central Depository System (CDS) accounts were opened, bringing the total investor base to 766,759.

This compares to only 8,903 new accounts opened in January 2025, a remarkable 246.61 per cent year-on-year increase. The message is clear: Tanzanians are not merely observing the market; they are entering it in unprecedented numbers. Taken together, these developments mark a decisive break from the traditional January slowdown. Investors are increasingly viewing equities not as emergency liquidity tools, but as long-term financial instruments.

The expanding investor base, rising liquidity, diversified price gains and contained downside risks all point toward a capital market that is deepening, stabilising and maturing. January 2026 was not just a good month; it was a psychological shift. It demonstrated that the country’s capital market is evolving beyond seasonal pressures into a platform driven by strategy, confidence and long-term vision.

If this trajectory holds, the DSE is no longer simply growing; it is coming of age. And in doing so, it is quietly positioning itself as one of East Africa’s most promising investment frontiers. If the momentum witnessed in January becomes the new normal, the DSE will move beyond seasonal cycles into sustained performance.

The month offered a glimpse of what a mature, resilient and inclusive capital market in the country can look like and the opportunity now lies in nurturing this progress for the long term.