Valuation rise as 2026 unfolds

DAR ES SALAAM: THE Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) closed the week with market activity showing a slight dip in activity compared to the previous trading week. Total turnover for the week decreased to 20.4bn/- from 26.6bn/-, representing a 27.37 per cent decrease.

CRDB Bank emerged as the dominant player, contributing 70.39 per cent of the total market turnover. Chasing behind was KCB Bank, which accounted for 7.15 per cent, NMB contributed 6.14 per cent of the total turnover. On the price movement front, MKCB stood out as the week’s top gainer.

Its share price appreciated by 60.86 per cent, closing at 4,890/- per share. MBP followed, recording a 56.96 per cent increase, closing the week at 1,240/- per share. NICO closed the week at 2,750/- being 45.5 per cent jump, SWIS sustained its bullish run ending the week at 2,700/- equal to a 15.88 per cent weekly increase.

On the loser’s side AFRIRISE and TOL Gases dropped by 4.0 per cent and 2.45 per cent, closing the week at 480/- and 995/- per share respectively.

In terms of market valuation, the exchange registered an increase in both total and domestic market capitalisation. Total market capitalisation is up by 4.38 per cent, to 25.25tri/-. Similarly, domestic market capitalisation is up by 6.33 per cent, closing the week at 16.7tri/.

Key benchmark indices

All Share Index (DSEI) closed at 2,907.43 points up by 4.38 per cent Tanzania Share Index (TSI) closed at 6,204.73 points up by 6.33 per cent

Sector indices

• Industrial & Allied Index (IA) closed at 4,506.13 points up by 4.53 per cent.

• Bank, Finance & Investment Index closed at 11,785.02 points, up by 6.56 per cent.

• Commercial Services Index closed at 2,174.4 points, up by 10.96 per cent.

Highlights: Debt market Treasury bill auction no: 1190

On January 07, 2026, Central Bank was in the market offering treasury bills to investors. The offerings included 19.9bn/- for the 35-day maturity Treasury bill, 29.9bn/- for the 91-day Tbill, 49.9bn/- for the 182-day Tbill and 75.2bn/- for the 364-day T-bill.

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In this auction, investor demand was strong across most maturities, with Treasury bills recording high subscription rates.

The 35-day bill was subscribed to 251.26 per cent, the 91-day bill by 248.30 per cent and the 364-day bill by 186.58 per cent. In contrast, the 182- day bill was undersubscribed, recording a subscription rate of 88.18 per cent. The Bank of Tanzania accepted 53 per cent of the bids received for the 364-day bill.

Overall acceptance rates were relatively high across all maturities, except for the 182-day bill and the 365- day bill, which also recorded a comparatively lower acceptance rate.

The 364-day Treasury bill registered a slight decline in its weighted average yield, easing from 6.2418 per cent in the early December auction to 6.1904 per cent in this auction a decrease of 5.14 basis points.

This decline in yield is associated with the slight increase in the minimum successful price, which rose to 94.1328 from 93.48 in the previous auction. Meanwhile the inflation rate for December 2025 was recorded at 3.6 per cent. Inflation for November 2025 stood at 3.4 per cent.

Secondary market activity

The secondary bond market posted a turnover of 46.57bn/- up from 20.63bn/- in the previous week, an increase of 125 per cent. Activity was primarily concentrated in the long-term papers; 20-year bonds.

Market outlook: Navigating 2026

The Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) has entered 2026 with a robust valuation base, building on the significant momentum of the previous year. While the first full week of January 2026 saw a 20.46bn/- turnover, a 27.37 per cent decrease from the short holiday week prior the broader market indicators suggest a highly resilient and growing landscape.

The market is currently characterised by a strong upward trend in valuation across all major categories. As of January 9, 2026:

• Domestic market cap: Has reached 16.78tri/-, representing a 7.73 per cent Year-toDate (YTD) increase.

• Total market cap: Now stands at 25.25tri/-, up 5.27 per cent YTD.

• ETF market capitalisation: While slightly down for the week (-1.25 per cent), it has seen an explosive 102.37 per cent growth YTD, highlighting the successful rise of retail-focused products.

Sectoral breakouts

The theme for 2026 is shifting toward “Infrastructure & Inclusion,” with early performance indicating that sectors beyond banking are beginning to take center stage:

• Commercial Services (CS): Leads the sectoral growth with a 15.32 per cent YTD increase, closing the week at 2,174.40 points.

• Banks, Finance & Investment (BI): Maintains steady growth with an 8.12 per cent YTD gain, supported by the continued dominance of leaders like NMB and CRDB.

• Industrial & Allied (IA): Has posted a 4.83 per cent YTD increase, signaling health in the manufacturing and industrial segments.

Monetary policy and economic environment

The Bank of Tanzania (BoT) has provided a stable foundation for 2026 by maintaining the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75 per cent.

This policy hold, coupled with an estimated 2025 GDP growth of 5.9 per cent and a 2026 projection of 6.4 per cent, creates a favorable backdrop for equity and bond market expansion.

Key observation: Despite a week-on-week dip in trading volume (-55.80 per cent), the All Shares Index (DSEI) is up 5.27 per cent YTD, suggesting that while activity fluctuated, value stayed high as investors position themselves for the year’s breakout sectors.