Why development plans shift from promises to outcomes

TANZANIA’S development is gradually shifting from promises to measurable outcomes. Critically examining recent initiatives, the National Vision 2050 emphasises that lasting growth depends less on ambition or politics and more on the effectiveness of the systems supporting policies, institutions and national aspirations.

The vision underlines that the country’s progress will be defined not just by plans on paper, but by the tangible impacts experienced by citizens in their daily lives.

Since independence in 1961, the country has pursued a series of national development plans, reflecting shifts from Ujamaa socialism to liberalisation and now to industrialisation and sustainable growth. These evolving strategies highlight key milestones in the country’s socio-economic transformation.

Each era presents lessons about the link between strategy, institutional capacity and measurable outcomes. The First Five-Year Development Plan (1964–1969) concentrated on infrastructure, education and agriculture.

As Tanzania entered its post-independence phase, the emphasis was on nation-building and expanding social services. My evaluation indicates that while progress was visible, the plan relied heavily on foreign aid and technical assistance, demonstrating early limits in domestic capacity to implement large-scale programs independently.

The Second FiveYear Development Plan (1969–1974), guided by the Arusha Declaration of 1967, focused on Ujamaa, rural development and nationalisation.

Its execution revealed limitations: Industrial and agricultural productivity remained constrained under centralised control, highlighting the challenges of managing a command-style economy.

The Third Plan (1976– 1981) continued emphasising self-reliance and consolidation of Ujamaa villages, yet its implementation was disrupted by the 1978–79 Uganda war and the broader economic crisis, leaving several objectives unfulfilled.

From the 1980s to the early 1990s, the country underwent Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs), which marked a significant policy shift toward liberalisation, privatisation and a market economy.

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Driven largely by IMF and World Bank conditionalities, SAPs stabilised the macroeconomy but resulted in the deterioration of social services. While this period was not a formal national plan, it laid the groundwork for future strategies, especially Vision 2025, launched in 1999 to transform the country into a middle-income, semi-industrialised country by 2025.

Vision 2025 emphasised good governance, education, economic growth and social wellbeing. Its long-term planning approach guided subsequent medium-term strategies. The country subsequently implemented the National Strategy for Growth and Poverty Reduction (MKUKUTA I, 2005–2010 and MKUKUTA II, 2010–2015), focusing on propoor growth, governance and service delivery.

These strategies aimed to align poverty reduction with sector-level interventions, emphasising measurable impact. Parallel to these, the Long-Term Perspective Plan (LTPP, 2011/12–2025/26) was developed to operationalise Vision 2025 through three five-year phases. FYDP I (2011/12–2015/16) sought to unlock Tanzania’s latent growth potential through infrastructure, agriculture and human capital development.

FYDP II (2016/17–2020/21) continued prioritising industrialisation and human development, integrating the MKUKUTA II framework to ensure inclusive growth.

FYDP III (2021/22–2025/26) focuses on competitiveness, exportdriven growth, job creation, value addition and private sector expansion, all aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the African Union’s Agenda 2063.

Vision 2050 builds on these foundations, focusing on green growth, a digital economy, climate resilience, knowledgebased development, inclusiveness and sustainability.

While each plan historically involved high-level political commitment and comprehensive targets, the persistent gap between policy intentions and lived experiences reflects systemic challenges in translating planning into measurable results.

The World Bank’s Independent Evaluation Group has long pinpointed high failure rates in infrastructure projects across SubSaharan Africa, often exceeding 50 per cent.

Parliamentary discussions in the country mirror these concerns: Infrastructure projects, healthcare investments and education initiatives are often launched with great enthusiasm but stall due to interagency misalignment, unclear timelines or inadequate monitoring.

Primary health centres, schools and rural roads frequently remain unfinished, under-equipped or unstaffed. Efforts to provide adequate desks, learning environments and teaching resources often fall short due to fragmented oversight.

These patterns underscore a persistent national dilemma: Plans are devised, funds allocated, yet outcomes fall significantly short. The consequences are tangible. Rural children attend schools without roofs or basic equipment; Pregnant women travel long distances for antenatal care; Traders lose produce due to poor roads and insecurity.

Development, therefore, is not achieved through policy design alone. It requires a functional, nationally coordinated architecture to ensure government actions at all levels align with nation-building objectives. Globally, countries with presidential systems, such as the United States, institutionalise mechanisms for translating national strategy into measurable outcomes.

Federal agencies operate under shared performance metrics, linking national priorities to statelevel deliverables. While not perfect, this system creates strategic coherence, continuity and measurable impact.

Tanzania can adopt a similar principle, aligning policies, institutions and local authorities under a single, wellcoordinated framework.

As the country moves toward implementing Vision 2050, adopting a data-driven, citizen-focused Impact Implementation Development Framework is critical. With 31 administrative regions and roughly 186 Local Government Authorities (184 on the mainland, including 34 urban and 150 rural and 2 in Zanzibar), alongside a youthful population, the country requires more effective, technologyenabled governance.

Such a framework enables better planning, monitoring and inclusive development, ensuring that government initiatives meet the needs of all citizens. Public confidence in governance is built on tangible results, not rhetoric. Tanzanians increasingly judge leadership based on lived experience rather than manifesto promises.

Initiatives such as ward secondary schools have helped citizens develop a broader understanding of development, living standards, safety, healthcare access and employment opportunities. People trust what they experience directly.

The government’s ability to meet citizen expectations depends not only on political will but also on the operational framework linking high-level strategy to daily impact. Implementation must be recognised as a national skill, not an afterthought.

Moving forward, the impact generated must become the new political currency. The country requires a national development framework ensuring that its plans translate into meaningful improvements in citizens’ lives, bridging the gap between ambition and measurable outcomes.