Manifestos tested against Tanzania’s 1 trillion dollar vision

DAR ES SALAAM: AS Tanzania heads into the General Election next month, the rhetoric of political parties is once again in the spotlight.

Campaign pledges are flowing, but one question looms above all: Can they propel the nation towards its ambitious goal of becoming a trillion-dollar economy by 2050 under the Development Vision 2050 (DV2050)?

Tanzania’s Vision 2050 aims to transform the nation into an industrialised, knowledge-based, upper-middle-income country with a trillion-dollar economy and a per capita income of 7,000 US dollars by 2050 from 1,185 US dollars in 2024, according to World Bank figures.

The Vision is bold. It sets out key performance benchmarks: Industry contributing 40 per cent to GDP, annual growth of 8–10 per cent, 50 per cent of the workforce in formal employment, 25 per cent higher education attainment and 3,000 kWh energy use per capita.

Supporting goals range from strengthening regional integration and climate resilience to positioning Kiswahili on the global stage.

But for voters, the critical issue is this: How do today’s manifestos measure up against tomorrow’s trillion-dollar dream?

The data challenge

Reaching the target demands more than high growth figures. It requires robust data systems, real-time monitoring and near-perfect quality assurance. At the 4th Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) Conference in Mwanza last month, Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa stressed that data integrity must underpin government decision-making. DV2050 even envisions a national data steward to ensure indicators are tracked accurately and consistently.

The question, then, is whether political parties are embedding such forward-looking commitments in their manifestos—or merely offering broad promises.

CCM: The trillion-dollar blueprint?

President Samia Suluhu Hassan launched CCM’s campaign in late August, unveiling a 2025–2030 economic agenda that sets out ambitious plans across sectors. The manifesto’s aspirations—if realised—could indeed lay the foundation for the trillion-dollar economy.

Infrastructure and connectivity feature prominently: Expansion of the Bagamoyo port, new railways such as the Tanga–Arusha–Musoma line, SGR extensions, regional highways, airports and BRT systems. These projects promise to cut transport costs, strengthen regional trade and spark growth in tourism and industry.

Agriculture and irrigation targets include expanding irrigated land from under one million acres to five million, boosting fertiliser use and building machinery centres. Such measures would boost food security, raise farmer incomes and position Tanzania as a regional food powerhouse.

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Industrialisation focuses on special economic zones, industrial parks and refining natural resources locally. By adding value rather than exporting raw materials, Tanzania could grow manufacturing’s share of GDP towards the 40 per cent DV2050 benchmark while creating jobs and innovations for youth and women.

The blue economy and tourism also feature strongly, with investments in fisheries, aquaculture, ports and marine tourism projected to push tourism’s GDP contribution to 20 per cent.

On employment and human capital, CCM promises eight million new jobs—many in the formal sector—supported by vocational training, start-up support and expanded opportunities for women and youth.

Energy security is another pillar, with plans to scale output to 8,000 MW, achieve universal rural electrification and advance the LNG project while ensuring local participation.

The manifesto also touches on the digital economy, pledging advances in AI, harmonised government data platforms and more accurate statistics. Such steps would boost investor confidence and improve governance.

Even social infrastructure is on the radar: Clean water access for 90 per cent of the population, more entertainment and cultural facilities and stronger creative industries. Combined with fiscal measures to widen the tax base, lower borrowing costs and support MSMEs, CCM’s economic agenda presents a wide-ranging growth strategy.

CHAUMMA: A newer voice

Chama cha Ukombozi wa Umma (CHAUMMA), though relatively new and drawing members from other parties, also stakes its claim on the DV2050 vision. Its manifesto highlights inclusivity—particularly of youth and women—as the foundation for building an equitable economy.

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While less detailed than CCM’s, CHAUMMA’s platform pledges fiscal discipline, transparency and a review of tax policy to increase revenues without burdening low-income households. It also promises better access to health, education and water in underserved regions, alongside strategies to address youth unemployment and skills mismatches.

On governance, the party emphasises anti-corruption, integrity and accountability. Environmentally, it commits to climate sustainability and equitable access to technology, including AI.

Though broad, CHAUMMA’s approach signals a focus on fairness and long-term sustainability.

The trillion-dollar test

Both CCM and CHAUMMA present manifestos that echo the aspirations of DV2050. The difference lies in detail: CCM lays out a granular roadmap tied to specific projects and targets while CHAUMMA focuses more on principles of inclusivity, transparency and equity.

But manifestos are only as good as their execution. Strong governance, financial discipline and unwavering commitment to fighting corruption will determine whether today’s promises become tomorrow’s trillion-dollar reality.

For Tanzania, the 2050 vision is not just a dream—it is a rare opportunity to reshape the nation’s economic destiny and attract global investment.

The real test lies in whether the party that secures the mandate to govern will honour its campaign pledges—delivering them with integrity and turning promises into tangible progress.

As voters weigh their options, the ultimate question remains: Which party can turn rhetoric into results?

Dr Hilberbrand Shayo is an economist and investment banker