COLUMN: THE AGRARIAN QUEST. Tanzanian farming faces US tariff headwinds
SINCE Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, a new chapter in global trade has begun— one that departs significantly from the norms we were accustomed to.
Trade policy is no longer dictated by the World Trade Organisation but rather by the stroke of one man’s pen, as Trump attempts to rectify the mistakes of his predecessors, who allowed the US to be taken advantage of by nearly every country on earth.
On April 2, 2025— dubbed “Liberation Day” by President Trump—a baseline 10 per cent tariff was imposed on all imports into the US. Additionally, a higher “reciprocal tariff” was introduced, ranging from approximately 11 per cent to 50 per cent, targeting around 57 trading partners.
However, in late July 2025, revised tariff rates were announced, with implementation delayed until August 7, 2025.
Tanzania was not among the countries subjected to the reciprocal tariffs, meaning its exports could face only the baseline 10 per cent tariff.
Tanzania’s primary agricultural exports include cashew nuts, coffee, tobacco, tea, cloves, sisal, legumes, sesame, avocados and other horticultural products. When a key destination market imposes tariffs on these exports, the result is increased costs for Tanzanian goods, making them less competitive compared to those from lower-tariff or dutyfree suppliers.
This also reduces export revenues, as fewer products successfully access the intended markets. The US accounts for only 1.0 to 1.5 per cent of Tanzania’s agricultural exports, with coffee being the leading commodity in that segment.
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Major importers of Tanzanian agricultural products include India, East African countries (Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda), the United Arab Emirates, China, Vietnam and various European nations.
Therefore, the direct impact of the US tariff regime on Tanzania is relatively minor. Moreover, Tanzania is currently shielded from US tariffs under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which remains in effect until the end of 2025—unless extended by the current administration.
However, if AGOA is not renewed, the ripple effects could be substantial. First, the US offers an extremely lucrative market due to its enormous spending power— it accounts for 29 per cent of global household consumption, the largest single share worldwide.
For Tanzanian farmers and stakeholders across the agricultural value chain to fully realise their potential, they must expand the production of crops that are in demand in the US and meet the required quality standards—an area where Tanzania, like many African countries, has long fallen short.
Second, over-reliance on current export markets like India poses significant risks. While India imports approximately 80 per cent of Tanzania’s cashew nuts, it remains a volatile market compared to the US or European Union countries, the latter offering zero tariffs to Tanzania due to its classification as a Least Developed Country.
There are fresh memories of India suspending cashew nut imports over concerns related to quality and logistics. Additionally, in 2017, India imposed quantitative restrictions on pigeon peas just one year after encouraging increased Tanzanian production with promises of purchase.
Therefore, market diversification is more important now than ever. Third, if the tariff war continues, Tanzania’s other key export markets will also likely suffer economic downturns, which will weaken their consumption capacity.
This presents an opportunity for Tanzania to strengthen its presence in regional markets, particularly within the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the East African Community (EAC) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
This essay is based on current developments initiated by the US against its global trading partners. These conditions are subject to change depending on future economic or political shifts, which could dramatically alter the current landscape.
