New study paves a way to a just energy transition for Tanzania

DAR ES SALAAM: The electrification and energy transition programme that African countries face seems quite complex but feasible.

Up to 25% of the world population will live in Africa by 2060. The vast majority of countries on the continent have already been facing challenges in terms of electricity, ecology and climate.

These include a low-level of electrification and, as a result, critical dependence on wood and charcoal, which leads to widespread deforestation and environmental deterioration in the region.

A group of researchers at Kept presented a study devoted to the analysis of the energy sector in East and Southern Africa. According to the data, the region is one of the largest untapped energy markets in the world.

However, the development of the electricity sector can solve a wide range of Africa’s problems and contribute to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Sergey Rozhenko, Power Analytics Director at Kept, elaborated on the metrics utilised over the research monitoring, “While working on the study, we created a rather simple indicator for defining the socio-economic development of a country – ‘energy density per person’, calculated in kWh per capita/annum.

For a country to attain economic well-being, at least 1,000-2,000 kWh per capita are needed. The baseline for most of Sub-Saharan Africa is 100-200 kWh per capita.

Given population growth, bridging such a gap would require the construction of power systems comparable to Russia’s 5 power systems. This is the world’s largest untapped energy market.”

According to the study, electricity consumption in the region estimated less than 600 kWh per capita in 2020, with only five countries exceeding 1,000 kWh per capita. In a number of countries, such as Burundi, Congo, Ethiopia, Rwanda, South Sudan and Uganda, this figure was less than 100 kWh per capita.

Thus, to ensure economic growth in East and Southern Africa (ESA), the region’s electricity consumption must increase by an order of magnitude.

Electrifying East and Southern Africa presents a major technical challenge. In 2020, less than half of the population (48%) had access to electricity and less than a quarter (23%) rely on firewood and charcoal as their main source of energy on a daily basis.

According to the World Bank, the population of East and Southern Africa in 2020 was 743 million people. According to Kept’s forecasts, by 2040 and 2060 this figure will reach 1.2 billion and 1.6 billion people, respectively. Thus, the total population of the region will be growing rapidly. The countries with the largest population will be Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Tanzania, etc.
For countries to achieve a GDP level of more than 10 thousand US dollars – that is the level of development of middle-income countries according to the World Bank classification – electricity generation in the region should increase ninefold relative to current values ​​- to 5,200 TWh by 2060. Electrification will reduce dependence on biomass, which will make it possible to stop deforestation and reduce the impact on the environment, Kept experts are confident.

Transformations are only possible with an inclusive mix of fuel and renewable energy sources. According to Kept estimates, 60% of electricity will be generated by coal and gas power plants, the remaining 40% will be almost equally divided between nuclear power plants and renewable energy sources. Thus, the African energy market offers significant potential for international cooperation and development in the field of fossil fuel, nuclear and renewable energy sources.

As experts point out, to implement the energy transition, Africa requires significant energy construction in the amount of more than 930 GW, including more than 320 GW of gas and more than 245 GW of coal-fired thermal power plants, as well as the necessary infrastructure. Nuclear energy will play an important role in stabilising the gas balance and fuel. Small modular reactor technologies (SMR) will provide significant advantages for landlocked countries with small power systems and weak interconnections. Renewable energy production can provide up to 1,100 TWh, one fifth of the energy balance, but achieving a 100% share of renewable energy in the region’s energy balance is technically and economically unfeasible.

In general, the potential size of the energy market in African countries should increase by 9 times by 2060.

Tanzania should be among the seven largest energy markets in Africa by 2060, comparable to the UK market, where the installed energy capacity is 300 TWh.

From 2020 to 2060, electricity generation in Tanzania should increase by 40%, to 105 kWh per capita.

A comprehensive strategy for work in Africa, including Tanzania, has yet to be formed.

The implementation of major energy projects should primarily be aimed at developing economic self-sufficiency and solvent demand in these countries, which will be a practical prerequisite for the further development of a “multipolar world”.

At the same time, analysts recommend paying special attention to projects aimed at achieving a minimum level of annual electricity consumption of 1,000 kWh per capita in African countries, which would allow them to relaunch a modern economy.