The debt analysts are expecting 25 years government bond to oversubscribe with a slight yields drop in today’s auction.
The analysts’ projection is based on the fact that the 25-year paper has the highest yields among all seven bonds hence drawing a huge appetite.
Also, the previous auctions—the first and the second—were heavily oversubscribed while pinning down yield rates.
Orbit Securities Head of Research and Analytics Imani Muhingo told ‘Daily News’ that the bond is one of the most liquid papers in the market thus investors’ appetite for the paper is still high.
“So we expect an oversubscription as well as a drop in the paper’s yield following competitive pricing from the public,” Mr Muhingo said.
He said the demand poised to push down yields which augers well with the Bank of Tanzania (BoT) programme to lower market interest rates.
“As well as a pushback from the central bank to lower yields as a measure to lower interest rates in the economy,” Mr Muhingo said.
The second auction saw the paper oversubscribed by four times attracting 585.58bn/- instead of 133bn/-.
At the end of the day, the central bank accepted 123bn/- with an average coupon yield of 15.86 per cent.
Vertex International Securities, Advisory and Capital Markets Manager Ahmed Nganya said the bond oversubscription is predictable based on the past auction since the bond was introduced in April.
“We expect the 25–year bond to oversubscribe with a slight decrease in yields,” Mr Nganya said.
Zan Securities said in a special report after the second auction of the paper that the high appetite for long-tenured instruments will continue to characterize all forthcoming 20-year and 25-year bond auctions to oversubscription.
“However,” Zan said, “with the monetary policy measures in place by the BoT yields are going to fall by means of encouraging more liquidity towards the private sector.
“Furthermore, increased liquidity in the market could also be seen as an advantage as it helps the government to borrow cheaply”.
Some analysts urged the government bonds issuance could crowd out much-needed credit for the private sector as banks typically prefer to hold lower-risk Treasury bonds to maturity.
In July the central bank issued policy measures to promote credit to the private sector and lower interest rates, to kick start the capital reallocation excess liquidity tendered in auctions will be negated by means of increasing the minimum successful price.