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Dar bourse forecast to improve, investors participation rising

IN the coming week, we forecast that Dar bourse will remain active, as investors participation continues to increase since the beginning of the year. Different counters experienced share price appreciation, and at the same time other decline which amplifies that the market is vigorous.

The market will remain active during the week and mainly from the top local active counters. JATU Plc share price anticipated to decline at the bourse it is likely that it may remain active for some coming trading sessions, due to many investors looking to sale.

CRDB is likely to be the most active counter and this has been due to Analysts and traders’ expectations on the 2020 performance of the bank and hence creates higher demand for the shares and will push the price higher in the coming week. Other top counters expected to transact during the week include TBL, TPCC, NICOL, SWIS and DSE. In midweek we expect a 15 year Treasury bond auction to be held by the central bank.

There could be slight increase in the WAY for the long-term instruments, but with a likelihood of oversubscription since investors are looking for the higher return with the modest risk, which bring the demand for treasuries higher.

In the interbank cash market, despite the increase in the Weighted average rate (WAR) during the previous week, we still reiterate anticipate that WAR will continue to be stable and within a range of 3.50 per cent to 4.00 per cent with slight volatility in the high and low rate.

The Bourse During the week, total market capitalization lost by 0.44 per cent to close the market at TZS 14.91 Trillion from TZS 14.97 Trillion in the previous week mainly due to share price depreciation of cross listed firms at the bourse.

CRDB share price increased by 4.44 per cent to close at TZS 235, and DSE share price increased by 4.35 per cent to close at TZS 960 while EABL declined by 0.63 per cent to close at TZS 3,140, KCB declined by 2.60 per cent to close at TZS 750, JATU share price declined by 34.17 per cent to close at 1,580, JHL share price declined by 3.31 per cent to close at TZS 5,850 and NMG share price declined by 3.08 per cent to close at TZS 315.

Domestic market capitalization gained by 0.27 per cent thanks to share price appreciation of CRDB and DSE. TSI gained 0.27 per cent to close at 3,523.11 points, DSEI lost 0.44 per cent to close at 1,795.06 points, Industrial & allied index lost 0.03 per cent to close at 4,818.84 points, Bank, Finance, and Investment Index (B&F) gained 1.41 per cent to close at 2,464.96points while Commercial Service (CS) remain stationary during the week at 2,139.33 points. Total Volume of shares traded increased by 4.25 per cent to 2,683,607 with 234 deals from last week’s 2,574,267 with 205 deals.

Total turnover for the week increased by 18.57 per cent to TZS 704.71 million from TZS 594.32 Million previous week. CRDB led all counters after transacting shares worth TZS 600.67 Million, DSE counter followed after transacting shares worth TZS 44.68 Million, JATU transacted shares worth TZS 37.98 Million, TPCC counter transacted shares worth TZS 9.06 Million, NICOL transacted shares worth TZS 4.46 Million, VODA transacted shares worth TZS 4.08 Million, TCC transacted shares worth TZS 972,000, TCCL transacted shares worth TZS 900,000, TBL transacted shares worth TZS 728,000, SWIS transacted shares worth TZS 592,700, DCB transacted shares worth TZS 526,650, MKCB transacted shares worth TZS 15,000, MBP transacted shares worth TZS 4,500.

PAL joined the laggard after transacting shares worth TZS 4,000. Interbank market During the week, the Interbank Cash Market (IBCM) recorded a total transaction value of TZS 280 billion being an increase from last week’s TZS 134 billion traded. The WAR increased to close at 4.00 per cent from 3.95 per cent.

The highest and lowest rate was 4.50 per cent and 3.50 per cent similar to previous week. Debt Market In the debt market, outstanding government bond listed at the bourse stood at TZS 12.91 trillion. On the Secondary market, the government bond segment transacted TZS 10.13 billion whose face value was TZS 9.69 billion from last week’s TZS 12.27 billion and face value of TZS 11.80 billion.

For the Corporate bonds, the market transacted bond worth TZS 78.44 Million and face value of TZS 85.00 Million from the previous week transaction value of TZS 19.32 Million and face value of TZS 21.00 Million. During the week, the central government in line with its debt issuance plan sought to raise total of TZS 90.23 Billion from the public through a treasury bill.

The auction was undersubscribed by TZS 60.93 Billion. The central bank pocketed total of TZS 25.10 Billion; 35-days and 91-days was not successful, 182-days successful amount worth TZS 3 Billion and 364-days successful amount worth TZS 22.10 Billion. The WAY for 182 days and 364 days was 2.56 per cent and 5.22 per cent respectively. WAP for 182-days and 364-days was 98.74 and 95.05, respectively.

Interbank Foreign Exchange Market Total volume in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market increased to USD 3.21 Million from USD 24.15 Million in the previous week.

TZS/USD remain strong to close the market at TZS/ USD 2,309.83 from TZS/ USD 2,309.72 in the previous week.

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Author: Stock Market

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