How Samia navigated multiple economic headwinds

President Samia Suluhu Hassan

TANZANIA: THREE years ago, Samia Suluhu Hassan was sworn in as Tanzania’s first female president, making history as the first woman to hold the top job in the East African country.

The 61-year-old, dressed in black suit and red headscarf, took the oath of office in Dar es Salaam before inspecting troops at a military parade and receiving a cannon salute.

“I, Samia Suluhu Hassan, promise to be honest and obey and protect the constitution of Tanzania,” she said as she took the highest oath of office in mourning following the death of President John Magufuli.

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“This is the time to stand together and get connected. It’s time to bury our differences, show love to one another and look forward with confidence,” she said.

And confidence is the proper term to describe how Tanzania under her leadership navigated global economic headwinds en route to a major economic transformation with robust growth, soaring foreign direct investment inflows, controlled inflation and manageable debts.

From 2021 to 2023, Tanzania recorded robust economic growth, with investments soaring to record high levels on the back of ongoing business reforms to improve Tanzania’s business climate.

The central bank estimates economic growth to reach about 5 per cent in 2023 up from 4.7 per cent in 2022 despite external shocks characterised by high inflation, geopolitical tension, tightened financial conditions and climate-related challenges.

The robust growth place Tanzania among top 10 fastest growing economies in Africa in 2023. Growth is expected to 5.5 per cent in 2024 to be driven by public and private investment, reforms to improve business conditions, favorable weather, and a rebound in tourism.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is more optimistic about growth prospects in Tanzania, projecting a growth rate of 6.1 per cent in 2024, to be driven by the sustained recovery in tourism and gradual stability in supply and value chains.

The government managed to tame inflation down to make Tanzania among countries with lowest inflation rates in Africa.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of Tanzania (NBS) the annual headline inflation rate stagnated at 3.0 per cent for two consecutive months in February 2024. The inflation rate in December 2023 was at 3 per cent down 4.8 per cent recorded in December 2022 and 4.2 per cent in December 2021.

The national debt stock has surged but remains manageable as the government is mobilizing funds to finance mega projects including standard gauge railway and Julius Nyerere hydro-electric power.

The central bank says in its latest Monetary Policy Statement, Mid-Year Review 2023/24 that the national debt stock increased from 40,080.4 million US dollars (about 102.244tri/- ) in December 2022 to 41,782.6 million US dollars (about 106.711tri/-) at the end of December last year.

Public debt to GDP ratio is 41.8 per cent down from 42.1 per cent in 2021 and 42.29 per cent in 2022. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tanzania is among 10 least indebted nations in Africa. The government allocated 10.48tri/- from the 44.38tri/- budget for the 2023/24 financial year or 23.6 per cent of the total budget to service the national debt.

The amount is a 15 per cent rise from the 9.1tri/- trillion approved for debt servicing in 2022/23 year.

FDI inflows surged to 5.6 billion US dollars in 2023 up from 1,190.5 million US dollars in 2021 as regulatory reforms continue to improve the business environment, attracting investors from various sectors.

Last year Tanzania Investment Centre registered 504 projects a 58 per cent increase compared to the 292 projects registered in 2022. President Samia said in India last year Tanzania is targeting 15 billion US dollars in annual foreign direct investment (FDI) by 2025.

Speaking during a business forum she said Tanzania is implementing Africa’s most ambitious and progressive economic reforms, leveraging the private sector and investment as catalysts for growth.

“We have moved from registering 2 billion US dollars of FDI in 2020 to 5 billion US dollars in the year ending June 2023,” she was quoted as saying.

Last year Tanzania received good ratings in assessment of her creditworthiness by Moody’s and Fitch, two most significant global rating agencies. The ratings further build international confidence and attract investment capitals to Tanzania.